DET beat FLA 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.39 expected goals to 2.33. FLA outshot DET 33 to 24. C. Verhaeghe had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. C. Talbot stopped 32 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 4:37DETA. DeBrincatPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 11:23DETJ. Compher0.15 xG
- 3rd 19:20FLAA. Lundell0.12 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.33 xGDET 4.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 1:12 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:22 | 0:48 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 1:13 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:43 | 1:12 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:11 | 1:12 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:48 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:48 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| R. Asplund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:11 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:25 | 1:25 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:47 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:43 | 0:35 |
| J. Megna | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Kiersted | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 57:37 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:08 | 5:54 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:08 | 5:40 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:53 | 5:28 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 4:03 |
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:01 | 3:49 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:02 | 5:48 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:16 | 3:39 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 2:09 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 1:36 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:12 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:58 | 0:05 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:31 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:50 | 3:56 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:03 | 5:37 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:40 | 0:10 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:23 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.2, DET 3.0 | FLA 1, DET 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 30.1, DET 26.7 | FLA 33, DET 24 |
| Win chance | FLA 52% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 5 | 0.75 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 5 | 0.80 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.5 | 7 | 0.61 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.3 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.2 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.2 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 5 | 0.53 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.7 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA J. Puljujarvi | 1.5 | 5 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA R. Asplund | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Megna | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA M. Kiersted | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.