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Game Recap
FLA6
EDM5
FLA beat EDM 6-5, with the chances close: 2.39 expected goals to 2.64. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). Z. Hyman had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. S. Bobrovsky stopped 25 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| EDM | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 2:42FLAJ. BoqvistSH0.20 xG
- 1st 15:13EDMZ. Hyman0.21 xG
- 1st 19:32FLAM. TkachukPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 6:20EDMZ. Hyman0.11 xG
- 2nd 7:03EDMC. Brown0.02 xG
- 2nd 9:24EDML. DraisaitlPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 17:55FLAG. Forsling0.03 xG
- 3rd 6:53FLAN. Mikkola0.15 xG
- 3rd 7:23FLAS. Reinhart0.01 xG
- 3rd 8:02EDMK. Kapanen0.13 xG
- 3rd 13:05FLAC. Verhaeghe0.17 xG
Team Stats
FLAEDM
28Shots on goal30
2.39Expected goals2.64
54Shot attempts50
215v5 shots on goal22
1/4Power play1/3
39Hits21
13Blocked shots15
11Penalty minutes13
15Giveaways14
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.39 xGEDM 2.64 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 22:28 | 5:05 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:34 | 4:55 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:05 | 1:15 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:12 | 4:50 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:08 | 5:06 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:56 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 0:57 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:53 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:06 | 0:02 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:53 | 5:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 1:21 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 30 | 25 | 5 | .833 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:00 | 3:52 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:28 | 3:30 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:58 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:59 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:44 | 3:33 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:05 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:24 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:40 | 0:44 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 22:25 | 3:13 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 6 | 20:35 | 0:27 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 28 | 22 | 6 | .786 | 58:31 | Loss |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.9, EDM 3.2 | FLA 6, EDM 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 28.2, EDM 29.7 | FLA 28, EDM 30 |
| Win chance | EDM 55% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 2.9 | 0 | 1.49 | 3 | 38% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.7 | 4 | 0.94 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.7 | 4 | 0.74 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.6 | 6 | 0.73 | 2 | 35% | 2 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | 2 | 0.88 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.4 | 3 | 1.23 | 2 | 40% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.4 | 4 | 0.84 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.3 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.0 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 1.9 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.7 | 4 | 0.39 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.6 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.2 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.6 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.