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Game Recap
FLA1
LAK2
LAK beat FLA 2-1, with the chances close: 2.29 expected goals to 2.68. D. Kuemper stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LAK | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 2nd 7:27FLAE. RodriguesPP0.33 xG
- 3rd 6:41LAKS. Helenius0.20 xG
- 3rd 13:12LAKA. Kempe0.09 xG
Team Stats
FLALAK
28Shots on goal28
2.68Expected goals2.29
65Shot attempts56
205v5 shots on goal25
1/2Power play0/2
28Hits16
14Blocked shots19
4Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways15
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.68 xGLAK 2.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 1:09 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 1:07 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:24 | 1:17 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:53 | 2:20 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:39 | 2:22 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:32 | 2:27 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 1:15 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:49 | 2:23 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:00 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:41 | 2:22 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:37 | 0:08 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:15 | 1:15 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 57:24 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:34 | 3:40 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:29 | 2:13 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 6:50 | 0:00 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:43 | 2:02 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:20 | 1:47 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:05 | 2:12 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:39 | 1:54 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 1:47 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:03 |
| A. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:17 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:37 | 2:06 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:06 | 1:54 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25:02 | 0:05 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.7, LAK 2.9 | FLA 1, LAK 2 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 27.3, LAK 27.6 | FLA 28, LAK 28 |
| Win chance | LAK 54% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.9 | 2 | 0.85 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.8 | 5 | 0.92 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.6 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.3 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.1 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.1 | 3 | 0.85 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.1 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.3 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK A. Thomas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.6 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.