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Game Recap
FLA6
MIN1
FLA beat MIN 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.26 expected goals to 2.10. A. Ekblad led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Mikkola had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Bobrovsky stopped 26 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 3:48FLAA. Ekblad0.06 xG
- 1st 16:11MINM. RossiPP0.16 xG
- 1st 18:14FLAM. Samoskevich0.04 xG
- 2nd 15:28FLAM. Tkachuk0.06 xG
- 2nd 18:54FLAM. TkachukPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 11:10FLAN. Mikkola0.06 xG
- 3rd 19:30FLAE. Luostarinen0.24 xG
Team Stats
FLAMIN
33Shots on goal27
3.26Expected goals2.10
59Shot attempts51
255v5 shots on goal25
1/2Power play1/2
42Hits25
11Blocked shots9
16Penalty minutes16
11Giveaways15
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.26 xGMIN 2.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:02 | 2:05 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:35 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:32 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 10 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:08 | 0:35 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:22 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:35 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:32 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:48 | 1:38 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 1:28 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 1:28 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:09 | 0:35 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 21:16 | 0:30 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:34 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:26 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 27 | 26 | 1 | .963 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rossi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:54 | 2:22 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:52 | 2:22 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 15:25 | 2:22 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 2:22 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 14 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:22 | 2:22 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Fleury | 33 | 27 | 6 | .818 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Wallstedt | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.1, MIN 3.0 | FLA 6, MIN 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 30.4, MIN 27.9 | FLA 33, MIN 27 |
| Win chance | FLA 51% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.4 | 2 | 1.31 | 1 | 46% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.9 | 2 | 0.99 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.9 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.9 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.4 | 1 | 0.99 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.0 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.0 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.8 | 3 | 0.44 | 3 | 10% | 1 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.8 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.7 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 1.7 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.7 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.7 | 4 | 0.51 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.7 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN B. Gaunce | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 4 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.8 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.7 | 2 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.4 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.