Game Recap: FLA 1, MTL 3, March 15, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA1

FinalSat, Mar 15, 2025Every game that night

MTL3

MTL beat FLA 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.08 expected goals to 3.18. C. Caufield led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Mikkola had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Montembeault stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	0	1	0	1
MTL	2	0	1	3

1st 5:15MTLP. LainePP0.08 xG
1st 15:56MTLC. Caufield0.11 xG
2nd 3:51FLAM. Samoskevich0.11 xG
3rd 8:11MTLC. Dvorak0.04 xG

Team Stats

FLAMTL

22Shots on goal15

3.18Expected goals2.08

70Shot attempts47

155v5 shots on goal13

0/2Power play1/3

35Hits21

14Blocked shots24

6Penalty minutes4

24Giveaways9

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.18 xGMTL 2.08 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA22 on goal, 1 scored

MTL14 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	2	20:26	3:24
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	2	20:22	3:43
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	18:35	1:35
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	23:09	3:42
A. Barkov	C	0	0	0	2	3	3	-1	0	22:44	3:42
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	15:24	0:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:41	0:01
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:56	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:50	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:11	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:05	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:29	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	0	27:26	3:01
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	23:16	0:22
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	20:43	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	2	20:11	0:02
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:52	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:51	0:43

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	15	12	3	.800	56:52	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	19:04	3:59
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	0	5	1	+1	0	18:43	3:55
P. Laine	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:45	4:00
C. Dvorak	C	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	2	14:25	0:07
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	1	4	+1	0	20:09	4:34
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:27	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:46	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:03	0:38
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	12:39	0:45
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	12:19	0:03
J. Roy	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	11:16	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	2	11:08	0:36
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	21:37	4:12
D. Savard	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	17:03	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	0	0	25:32	0:36
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:10	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:36	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	13:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	22	21	1	.955	59:39	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.4, MTL 2.7	FLA 1, MTL 3
Total goals	6.0	4
Shots on goal	FLA 31.6, MTL 25.1	FLA 22, MTL 15
Win chance	FLA 61%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	3.1	3	0.69	1	28%	0
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	3	0.73	2	32%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	1	1.01	0	40%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.7	2	0.74	1	31%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.3	2	1.03	0	29%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.2	1	0.50	1	21%	1
FLA G. Forsling	2.1	1	0.42	0	12%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.1	2	0.57	0	11%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.1	2	0.53	0	11%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	3	0.46	0	19%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	1.9	1	0.85	0	26%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.8	1	0.37	0	18%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.7	1	0.57	0	19%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.7	0	0.58	1	20%	0
MTL P. Laine	1.7	2	0.50	1	21%	1
MTL J. Armia	1.5	1	0.33	0	16%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	0	0.27	0	15%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.3	4	0.26	0	5%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	0	0.37	0	16%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.2	0	0.37	0	16%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.2	1	0.31	0	5%	0
MTL J. Roy	1.2	1	0.27	0	12%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.2	2	0.32	1	13%	1
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	0	0.34	0	14%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	0	0.64	1	5%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.1	0	0.32	0	16%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.0	1	0.14	0	4%	0
FLA N. Sturm	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	1	0.19	0	5%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
MTL J. Evans	0.9	0	0.35	0	12%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.8	0	0.21	0	4%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	0.8	0	0.23	0	5%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.8	0	0.11	0	7%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.7	0	0.22	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.