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Game Recap
FLA2
MTL3
MTL beat FLA 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.45 expected goals to 2.94. L. Hutson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). S. Montembeault stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| MTL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 4:43MTLJ. Anderson0.05 xG
- 1st 10:37FLAN. Mikkola0.01 xG
- 2nd 18:47FLAM. SamoskevichPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 19:51MTLN. Suzuki0.78 xG
- OT 0:29MTLN. Suzuki0.43 xG
Team Stats
FLAMTL
27Shots on goal21
2.94Expected goals3.45
70Shot attempts49
225v5 shots on goal17
1/3Power play0/3
17Hits11
16Blocked shots20
6Penalty minutes6
6Giveaways6
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.94 xGMTL 3.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:11 | 0:50 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:46 | 2:36 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:18 | 2:36 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 19:15 | 2:36 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:27 | 1:12 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:34 | 2:16 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:48 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:50 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 27:28 | 2:44 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:04 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:17 | 0:42 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 60:10 | OT loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:30 | 4:29 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:30 | 4:04 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 21:31 | 4:05 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:37 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:35 | 4:08 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:37 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:05 | 0:34 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:54 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 26:12 | 3:38 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:13 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:39 | 1:05 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 59:25 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.5, MTL 2.8 | FLA 2, MTL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 31.4, MTL 25.3 | FLA 27, MTL 21 |
| Win chance | FLA 59% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 2 | 1.01 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.3 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.3 | 4 | 1.07 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.3 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.2 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.2 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.0 | 2 | 0.86 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.6 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.78 | 3 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.