Game Recap: FLA 1, NJD 3, October 16, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA1

FinalThu, Oct 16, 2025Every game that night

NJD3

NJD beat FLA 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.02 expected goals to 2.10. NJD outshot FLA 33 to 22. T. Meier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Hughes had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. J. Allen stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	1	0	0	1
NJD	0	1	2	3

1st 1:59FLAE. Rodrigues0.35 xG
2nd 5:48NJDJ. HughesPP0.10 xG
3rd 6:23NJDT. Meier0.03 xG
3rd 11:47NJDN. Hischier0.15 xG

Team Stats

FLANJD

22Shots on goal33

2.10Expected goals3.02

58Shot attempts66

165v5 shots on goal25

0/5Power play1/5

27Hits22

18Blocked shots20

8Penalty minutes12

13Giveaways10

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.10 xGNJD 3.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA21 on goal, 1 scored

NJD32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	2	16:09	4:56
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	2	14:41	3:35
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	22:31	5:10
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:02	3:27
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	17:58	5:08
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:19	3:37
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	4	14:57	3:09
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	13:59	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:40	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:51	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	9:46	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:03	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	0	6	2	-1	0	24:47	5:16
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	25:42	5:30
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	-1	0	23:11	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:58	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:46	3:22
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	33	30	3	.909	59:05	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Meier	RW	1	1	2	6	2	1	+2	0	20:08	5:44
J. Hughes	C	1	0	1	8	0	0	-1	0	21:38	4:28
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	21:17	5:44
D. Mercer	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	0	19:50	2:14
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	4	16:23	4:25
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	13:45	0:00
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	12:59	0:57
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	11:45	0:29
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:34	0:55
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:21	0:00
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:07	0:00
B. Halonen	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:22	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	+2	2	17:54	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	14:05	0:26
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	21:58	1:32
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	2	0	5	0	0	21:03	1:17
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	-1	0	20:08	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	4	19:43	4:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
N. Daws	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe13:00S. Reinhart13:50A. Lundell10:16

Line 2B. Marchand9:46S. Bennett11:24E. Rodrigues10:23

Line 3E. Luostarinen11:20J. Boqvist8:33M. Samoskevich11:11

Line 4L. Kunin7:31J. Gadjovich9:03A. Greer8:29

Pair 1S. Jones16:23N. Mikkola15:47

Pair 2G. Forsling16:14A. Ekblad13:51

Pair 3J. Petry9:45U. Balinskis9:34

NJD

Line 1D. Mercer12:50T. Meier11:56N. Hischier10:36

Line 2J. Bratt10:04J. Hughes13:50O. Palat11:16

Line 3C. Glass11:42C. Brown10:18A. Gritsyuk9:38

Line 4L. Glendening6:06P. Cotter8:32B. Halonen6:22

Pair 1D. Hamilton15:57J. Siegenthaler14:36

Pair 2B. Pesce13:14L. Hughes13:51

Pair 3B. Dillon12:07S. Nemec13:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEvan Rodrigues NJD First game against FLA since he left (his team until Mar 2026)1 G, 4 SOG
Old teamJesper Boqvist NJD First game against FLA since he left (his team until Apr 2026)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.0, NJD 2.8	FLA 1, NJD 3
Total goals	5.8	4
Shots on goal	FLA 27.6, NJD 26.1	FLA 22, NJD 33
Win chance	FLA 52%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.2	8	0.96	1	33%	1
NJD T. Meier	3.0	6	0.72	2	32%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.9	4	0.62	0	14%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.8	1	0.63	0	27%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	0	0.84	0	36%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.3	1	0.61	0	26%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	1	0.90	1	26%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	1	0.84	1	31%	1
FLA B. Marchand	2.2	4	0.70	1	26%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.9	1	0.54	0	12%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.9	1	0.51	0	17%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.8	3	0.36	0	10%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.8	2	0.59	0	8%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.8	0	0.47	1	11%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.8	4	0.42	1	16%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.7	0	0.48	1	24%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.6	4	0.34	0	15%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.6	2	0.29	0	5%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	0	0.37	0	15%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.4	0	0.32	0	13%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.2	0	0.21	0	5%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	0	0.36	0	13%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	0	0.40	0	17%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.1	1	0.24	1	5%	0
FLA L. Kunin	1.1	0	0.17	0	10%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	3	0.17	0	3%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	1	0.24	0	14%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	1	0.16	0	4%	0
NJD B. Halonen	0.9	0	0.18	0	10%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.8	1	0.25	0	4%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.8	0	0.17	0	8%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.7	1	0.12	0	7%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	2	0.21	1	4%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.6	1	0.11	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 13 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.