Game Recap: FLA 1, NJD 5, March 3, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA1

FinalTue, Mar 3, 2026Every game that night

NJD5

NJD beat FLA 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.50 expected goals to 2.92. NJD outshot FLA 33 to 21. D. Hamilton led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Bratt had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Markstrom stopped 20 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	1	0	0	1
NJD	1	2	2	5

1st 12:10NJDA. Gritsyuk0.18 xG
1st 14:37FLAA. Lundell0.29 xG
2nd 1:35NJDD. Hamilton0.16 xG
2nd 8:13NJDC. Glass0.10 xG
3rd 16:23NJDD. MercerEN0.15 xG
3rd 19:20NJDS. NemecEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

FLANJD

21Shots on goal33

2.92Expected goals5.50

43Shot attempts52

195v5 shots on goal26

0/3Power play0/2

33Hits17

9Blocked shots10

10Penalty minutes10

14Giveaways13

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.92 xGNJD 5.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA21 on goal, 1 scored

NJD31 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lundell	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-2	0	19:56	0:39
E. Rodrigues	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	13:27	0:39
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	22:33	3:11
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	18:50	3:21
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	18:49	3:21
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	14:31	0:00
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	14:28	0:39
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	4	14:12	3:01
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-2	0	13:45	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:21	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	7	1	0	2	9:34	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:06	0:23
U. Balinskis	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	16:55	0:39
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	23:25	3:11
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	22:40	0:16
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:04	0:20
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	17:54	0:00
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:47	0:20

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	31	28	3	.903	57:43	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+3	0	19:44	2:05
C. Brown	RW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	17:03	2:05
D. Mercer	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	17:23	1:55
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	5	0	1	+2	0	16:52	2:30
A. Gritsyuk	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:28	1:29
C. Glass	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	13:14	0:01
L. Hameenaho	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	12:37	0:00
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	19:06	2:05
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	+2	0	16:03	1:55
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:26	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	7:56	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	7:48	0:00
D. Hamilton	D	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	18:29	2:05
S. Nemec	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	20:52	1:55
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	2	23:05	1:55
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	22:04	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:33	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+3	8	16:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	21	20	1	.952	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1A. Lundell14:37S. Reinhart15:35S. Vilmanis12:31

Line 2S. Bennett12:02M. Tkachuk12:13C. Verhaeghe11:59

Line 3E. Rodrigues11:29E. Luostarinen11:35B. Marchand9:14

Line 4T. Nosek7:36A. Greer9:34M. Samoskevich8:43

Pair 1A. Ekblad16:09G. Forsling17:08

Pair 2D. Kulikov14:36N. Mikkola16:25

Pair 3T. Bjornfot12:55U. Balinskis14:14

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes13:51A. Gritsyuk13:15C. Brown12:48

Line 2N. Hischier13:00D. Mercer12:22T. Meier12:28

Line 3J. Bratt11:39L. Hameenaho11:32C. Glass11:08

Line 4P. Cotter8:57M. Tsyplakov7:56N. Bjugstad7:48

Pair 1D. Hamilton13:09J. Siegenthaler14:01

Pair 2B. Pesce17:17L. Hughes16:05

Pair 3B. Dillon15:33S. Nemec15:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEvan Rodrigues NJD First game against FLA since he left (his team until Mar 2026)1 A, 0 SOG
Old teamJacob Markstrom FLA First game back in Newark, his team until Apr 202620 saves on 21, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.0, NJD 2.9	FLA 1, NJD 5
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	FLA 27.8, NJD 27.6	FLA 21, NJD 33
Win chance	FLA 52%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.1	2	0.67	0	30%	0
NJD J. Hughes	3.0	1	1.00	2	32%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.9	3	0.64	2	15%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	3	0.76	0	30%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.7	2	0.99	0	31%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	1	0.93	0	37%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.4	2	0.84	0	31%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.3	0	0.49	1	18%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.2	1	0.64	0	25%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.1	1	0.74	0	27%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.1	5	0.87	1	25%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.0	3	0.60	1	20%	1
NJD A. Gritsyuk	1.9	3	0.41	1	15%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.8	0	0.30	0	12%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.8	3	0.57	0	8%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.7	3	0.38	0	10%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.7	0	0.57	2	19%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	1	0.44	0	9%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.5	3	0.45	1	21%	1
FLA U. Balinskis	1.5	1	0.32	1	8%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.4	2	0.39	1	10%	1
NJD C. Glass	1.4	1	0.35	1	14%	1
NJD N. Bjugstad	1.4	1	0.28	0	14%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	0	0.41	0	14%	0
NJD L. Hameenaho	1.3	0	0.36	1	15%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.3	2	0.26	0	5%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.1	1	0.27	0	12%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.8	0	0.18	0	5%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	2	0.17	0	3%	0
NJD M. Tsyplakov	0.8	2	0.21	0	7%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.8	2	0.25	0	12%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.23	0	4%	0
NJD P. Cotter	0.7	1	0.19	0	10%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.6	1	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.