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Game Recap
FLA6
NYI3
FLA beat NYI 6-3, with the chances close: 3.83 expected goals to 3.57. M. Tkachuk led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Tkachuk had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. S. Knight stopped 25 of 28.
Team Stats
FLANYI
29Shots on goal28
3.83Expected goals3.57
58Shot attempts58
255v5 shots on goal24
1/2Power play0/3
20Hits23
12Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes4
9Giveaways14
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.83 xGNYI 3.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 2:10 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:16 | 2:08 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:46 | 2:09 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:19 | 2:08 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:37 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:51 | 0:39 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:38 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:38 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:15 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 23:14 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 2:06 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 21:37 | 0:39 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:41 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:42 | 2:26 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:48 |
| B. Nelson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 1:51 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:35 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:13 | 4:03 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:12 | 4:06 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 4:02 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 4:06 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:41 | 1:36 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:06 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:06 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:06 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:35 | 0:55 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:01 | 4:12 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 | 0:20 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 1:28 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Varlamov | 28 | 23 | 5 | .821 | 58:14 | Loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.1, NYI 2.7 | FLA 6, NYI 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 31.7, NYI 28.2 | FLA 29, NYI 28 |
| Win chance | FLA 56% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.3 | 5 | 0.87 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.1 | 6 | 0.97 | 3 | 29% | 2 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 3 | 0.92 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.7 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.6 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.5 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.3 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.3 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 3 | 0.64 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 4 | 0.66 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.1 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.8 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI M. Reilly | 1.6 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.5 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.4 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.3 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.3 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Boqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA P. Giles | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.