NYI beat FLA 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.92 expected goals to 4.04. NYI outshot FLA 34 to 24. S. Reinhart led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Reinhart had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. I. Sorokin stopped 22 of 24.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 4.04 xGNYI 2.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:57 | 3:21 |
| A. Barkov | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:32 | 3:16 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:06 | 2:07 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:17 | 3:17 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:40 | 1:46 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:35 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:43 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:45 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:17 | 0:07 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 25:40 | 3:08 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:07 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:42 | 0:43 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 33 | 30 | 3 | .909 | 57:52 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:40 | 4:02 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:55 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:37 | 1:57 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:03 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 9:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:46 | 3:59 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:25 | 4:01 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:02 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:23 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:24 | 1:37 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 8:58 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:42 | 4:15 |
| N. Dobson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:58 | 4:19 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:23 | 1:35 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:24 | 0:18 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:22 | 1:34 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.0, NYI 2.8 | FLA 2, NYI 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 31.0, NYI 27.4 | FLA 24, NYI 34 |
| Win chance | FLA 53% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.0 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.9 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.7 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 6 | 0.90 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.4 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.2 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.2 | 3 | 0.93 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.2 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.1 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.1 | 0 | 0.52 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI M. Reilly | 1.6 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.4 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.4 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.1 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.7 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 0.6 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.