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Game Recap
FLA3
NYR1
FLA beat NYR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 2.74. C. Verhaeghe had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. S. Bobrovsky stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 0:44FLAA. Lundell0.16 xG
- 1st 2:42FLAC. Verhaeghe0.05 xG
- 1st 4:44NYRA. Lafrenière0.35 xG
- 2nd 6:59FLAS. Bennett0.06 xG
Team Stats
FLANYR
29Shots on goal25
3.56Expected goals2.74
56Shot attempts52
245v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play0/4
32Hits29
13Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes4
12Giveaways11
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.56 xGNYR 2.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:12 | 2:35 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:48 | 2:42 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:56 | 1:18 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 18:41 | 2:42 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:23 | 1:25 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:19 | 2:42 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:51 | 1:18 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:12 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:14 | 0:00 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:08 | 1:18 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 2:24 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 1:36 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:56 | 5:22 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 4:29 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:48 | 5:19 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:55 | 5:23 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:20 | 5:08 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:02 | 2:31 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:01 | 2:27 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 2:38 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:07 | 0:10 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:15 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:04 | 0:01 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:02 | 5:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:51 | 2:59 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:04 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:48 | 0:14 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 56:57 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.9, NYR 3.2 | FLA 3, NYR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 31.5, NYR 29.0 | FLA 29, NYR 25 |
| Win chance | NYR 54% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.2 | 6 | 0.77 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.0 | 3 | 0.85 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.9 | 2 | 1.17 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 3 | 0.61 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.5 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.3 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.3 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.3 | 0 | 0.84 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.2 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.9 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 1.9 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.8 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.7 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.7 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.5 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR V. Mancini | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.2 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Boqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.6 | 2 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA P. Giles | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.