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Game Recap
FLA1
FinalWed, Oct 21, 2026Every game that night
OTT5

OTT beat FLA 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.58 expected goals to 1.59. OTT outshot FLA 30 to 19. S. Halliday led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Halliday had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Ullmark stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
FLA1001
OTT1225
  1. 1st 10:00FLAB. TkachukPP0.14 xG
  2. 1st 14:13OTTT. StützlePP0.26 xG
  3. 2nd 9:34OTTC. Giroux0.04 xG
  4. 2nd 17:18OTTS. Pinto0.14 xG
  5. 3rd 7:58OTTW. Foegele0.18 xG
  6. 3rd 14:57OTTS. Halliday0.13 xG

Team Stats

FLAOTT
19Shots on goal30
1.59Expected goals2.58
41Shot attempts50
115v5 shots on goal19
1/5Power play1/7
42Hits25
11Blocked shots16
44Penalty minutes40
15Giveaways16
3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 1.59 xGOTT 2.58 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdFLA goal, 10:00OTT goal, 14:13OTT goal, 9:34OTT goal, 17:18OTT goal, 7:58OTT goal, 14:57

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA19 on goal, 1 scored
OTT30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. TkachukLW011250-1617:294:53
B. TkachukLW101360-2613:132:11
A. LundellC000130-1019:001:52
E. LuostarinenC000212-1017:562:12
L. EllerC000111-2017:200:53
C. VerhaegheC000110-2016:553:40
S. BennettC000230-1716:553:12
S. ReinhartC0000100015:543:39
S. VilmanisLW000020-1011:480:00
G. HathawayRW000121009:570:00
C. SchwindtRW000050-107:400:00
B. ImamaLW0000200157:190:00
S. JonesD011321-1021:093:45
G. ForslingD000101-1022:260:50
N. MikkolaD000203-2219:430:11
A. EkbladD0000200419:062:07
R. GudasD000041-2417:030:00
D. KulikovD000021-2016:250:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Schmid30255.83360:00Loss
C. Black000–0:00

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. StützleC112101+1019:417:33
S. HallidayC112411+1014:458:04
S. PintoC101201+1020:311:48
D. CozensC011420+2218:247:15
D. BathersonRW011111+3217:416:44
W. FoegeleLW101421+1014:310:12
C. GirouxRW101200+2013:523:14
R. GreigC000120+1717:071:20
M. AmadioRW0001000014:480:08
F. ZetterlundLW0001100012:451:05
N. CousinsC0002400148:031:22
H. HodgsonRW000030076:570:00
J. SandersonD022421+1022:366:18
N. MatinpaloD011021+3213:130:00
T. KlevenD000134+1022:081:30
J. SpenceD000221+1018:582:47
C. YakemchukD000004+1218:442:50
A. ZubD000000+1417:050:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark18171.94443:35Win
S. Ersson1101.00016:25

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1M. Tkachuk11:31B. Tkachuk10:54S. Bennett12:17
Line 2C. Verhaeghe12:13S. Reinhart10:39L. Eller12:04
Line 3E. Luostarinen10:00A. Lundell11:16S. Vilmanis11:09
Line 4G. Hathaway6:33C. Schwindt7:33B. Imama7:19
Pair 1A. Ekblad14:01G. Forsling15:56
Pair 2D. Kulikov13:14R. Gudas13:48
Pair 3S. Jones12:19N. Mikkola14:09

OTT

Line 1S. Pinto13:59M. Amadio12:29R. Greig11:25
Line 2W. Foegele13:02D. Batherson10:57D. Cozens11:09
Line 3C. Giroux10:18F. Zetterlund11:40T. Stützle8:42
Line 4H. Hodgson6:55S. Halliday6:41N. Cousins6:41
Pair 1J. Spence14:59T. Kleven16:39
Pair 2A. Zub14:18J. Sanderson11:25
Pair 3N. Matinpalo11:34C. Yakemchuk14:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
FLA B. Tkachuk3.5+125-1543Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.5+130-1401Under
OTT D. Batherson2.5+150-1701Under
OTT D. Cozens2.5+125-1454Over
OTT J. Sanderson2.5+130-1554Over
FLA M. Tkachuk2.5-110-1142Under
FLA S. Bennett2.5+130-1502Under
FLA S. Reinhart2.5+120-1480Under
OTT T. Stützle2.5+130-1601Under
FLA A. Ekblad1.5+125-1850Under
FLA A. Lundell1.5-135+1151Under
OTT C. Giroux1.5-105-1202Over
OTT C. Yakemchuk1.5+105-1550Under
FLA E. Luostarinen1.5+125-1902Over
OTT F. Zetterlund1.5+120-1401Under
FLA G. Forsling1.5+100-1451Under
OTT R. Greig1.5+110-1401Under
FLA S. Jones1.5-122-1053Over
OTT S. Pinto1.5-150+1202Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamBrady Tkachuk FLA Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20261 G, 3 SOG
  • Old teamLars Eller FLA Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreFLA 2.8, OTT 3.0FLA 1, OTT 5
Total goals5.86
Shots on goalFLA 25.0, OTT 26.9FLA 19, OTT 30
Win chanceOTT 55%OTT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
FLA B. Tkachuk3.130.73128%1
FLA M. Tkachuk2.320.95129%0
FLA S. Bennett2.320.64026%0
FLA S. Reinhart2.300.81033%0
OTT D. Cozens2.340.65124%0
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.210.73029%0
OTT T. Stützle2.211.10233%1
OTT D. Batherson2.010.84129%0
OTT C. Giroux2.020.78124%1
OTT F. Zetterlund1.910.46019%0
OTT J. Sanderson1.940.58210%0
FLA A. Lundell1.910.54019%0
OTT S. Pinto1.820.61124%1
OTT W. Foegele1.740.39119%1
FLA S. Jones1.730.49110%0
OTT J. Spence1.620.4307%0
OTT R. Greig1.510.46018%0
OTT T. Kleven1.510.3107%0
OTT C. Yakemchuk1.400.3507%0
FLA G. Forsling1.310.3008%0
FLA L. Eller1.310.33013%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.320.41015%0
FLA A. Ekblad1.200.3608%0
OTT A. Zub1.100.3306%0
FLA C. Schwindt1.100.29012%0
OTT S. Halliday1.140.34212%1
FLA S. Vilmanis1.100.26012%0
OTT M. Amadio1.010.41018%0
FLA N. Mikkola1.020.1805%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.800.1112%0
FLA G. Hathaway0.710.1508%0
FLA R. Gudas0.700.1302%0
FLA B. Imama0.700.0805%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.600.1403%0
OTT N. Cousins0.620.1907%0
OTT H. Hodgson0.600.1104%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.