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Game Recap
FLA2
PHI5
PHI beat FLA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.80 expected goals to 2.70. S. Couturier led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). D. Vladar stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 8:54PHIT. Foerster0.15 xG
- 2nd 15:47PHIS. Couturier0.17 xG
- 2nd 19:22FLAS. ReinhartSH0.27 xG
- 3rd 10:15FLAS. BennettPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 15:50PHIS. Couturier0.12 xG
- 3rd 17:43PHIB. BrinkEN0.94 xG
- 3rd 18:33PHIC. DvorakEN0.85 xG
Team Stats
FLAPHI
26Shots on goal22
2.70Expected goals5.80
46Shot attempts59
165v5 shots on goal9
1/5Power play0/5
24Hits8
15Blocked shots14
10Penalty minutes10
17Giveaways13
2Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.70 xGPHI 5.80 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:27 | 5:48 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | -4 | 4 | 18:37 | 5:40 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:55 | 5:41 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 2:27 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:38 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:33 | 2:28 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:09 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 2:10 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:06 | 0:10 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:53 | 0:02 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 23:58 | 5:54 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 23:35 | 5:53 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 23:19 | 0:21 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:51 | 0:04 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 16:06 | 2:15 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 57:58 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Couturier | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 2 | 16:41 | 2:11 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:02 | 5:25 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:10 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:56 | 4:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 3:16 |
| B. Brink | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 3:30 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:55 | 6:19 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:56 | 5:58 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:52 | 4:51 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:08 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:34 | 0:05 |
| J. Luchanko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 24:56 | 3:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:16 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 6:16 |
| A. Ginning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1E. Rodrigues13:33M. Samoskevich10:37J. Boqvist9:16
Line 2B. Marchand9:57S. Bennett11:23C. Verhaeghe13:06
Line 3S. Reinhart10:57A. Lundell9:20E. Luostarinen8:45
Line 4L. Kunin7:16J. Gadjovich6:51A. Greer7:56
Pair 1S. Jones13:51N. Mikkola15:29
Pair 2G. Forsling15:52A. Ekblad12:47
Pair 3J. Petry11:26U. Balinskis9:48
PHI
Line 1B. Brink11:30T. Foerster10:06N. Cates8:44
Line 2S. Couturier11:14T. Konecny10:27M. Michkov8:58
Line 3C. Dvorak11:44T. Zegras8:49O. Tippett8:48
Line 4G. Hathaway9:01N. Grebenkin10:29J. Luchanko8:49
Pair 1N. Seeler14:17T. Sanheim14:16
Pair 2A. Ginning16:43J. Drysdale16:04
Pair 3E. Andrae10:22N. Juulsen7:49
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.4, PHI 2.5 | FLA 2, PHI 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 28.2, PHI 25.4 | FLA 26, PHI 22 |
| Win chance | FLA 63% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.9 | 4 | 0.76 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 4 | 1.02 | 2 | 39% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.5 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.4 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.3 | 0 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.2 | 4 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.2 | 4 | 0.56 | 4 | 18% | 2 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.0 | 0 | 0.71 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.9 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.9 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.8 | 1 | 0.38 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI J. Luchanko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI A. Ginning | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.5 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.