Game Recap: FLA 0, PIT 4, October 22, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA0

FinalThu, Oct 22, 2026Every game that night

PIT4

PIT beat FLA 4-0, with the chances close: 2.68 expected goals to 2.08. N. Robertson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Reinhart had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Silovs stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	0	0	0	0
PIT	1	1	2	4

1st 15:19PITN. Robertson0.16 xG
2nd 9:59PITH. Lapierre0.24 xG
3rd 1:40PITE. Malkin0.21 xG
3rd 17:34PITN. RobertsonEN0.48 xG

Team Stats

FLAPIT

26Shots on goal21

2.08Expected goals2.68

52Shot attempts41

195v5 shots on goal18

0/4Power play0/3

32Hits10

10Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes4

22Giveaways14

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.08 xGPIT 2.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA26 on goal, 0 scored

PIT22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	6	2	0	-1	0	20:29	5:53
L. Eller	C	0	1	0	0	0	19:29	2:13
S. Bennett	C	4	1	0	-2	0	18:58	4:34
M. Tkachuk	LW	1	2	0	-2	0	18:17	5:47
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	0	1	-1	0	17:47	4:48
B. Tkachuk	LW	3	5	0	-2	0	17:22	5:51
A. Lundell	C	2	0	2	-3	0	17:01	2:09
E. Luostarinen	C	1	2	0	-1	0	16:44	1:50
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	3	1	-2	0	10:03	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	6	1	0	4	9:50	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	1	2	0	0	0	9:39	0:00
B. Imama	LW	1	5	1	0	0	9:31	0:00
S. Jones	D	1	1	0	-1	0	23:03	4:13
A. Ekblad	D	2	0	2	-1	0	21:25	2:11
N. Mikkola	D	0	2	1	0	0	20:09	0:00
G. Forsling	D	2	0	0	-1	0	18:51	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	1	0	0	-2	2	14:09	1:53
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	1	-2	0	14:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Black	20	17	3	.850	57:05	Loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dewar	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+2	0	16:42	0:05
N. Robertson	LW	2	0	2	2	0	0	+2	0	14:06	0:00
E. Malkin	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	2	12:54	3:04
H. Lapierre	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	10:54	1:23
B. Lizotte	C	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	16:30	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	2	13:26	4:07
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	19:06	3:05
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:39	3:36
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:37	3:43
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:05	1:17
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:46	2:05
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	10:35	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+3	0	18:23	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	0	16:55	1:24
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+2	0	24:09	4:23
K. Korczak	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	19:22	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	19:13	0:08
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	16:38	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	26	26	0	1.000	60:00	Win
S. Murashov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1L. Eller14:27S. Reinhart12:32C. Verhaeghe12:45

Line 2S. Bennett13:36M. Tkachuk11:57B. Tkachuk11:04

Line 3G. Hathaway9:19C. Schwindt9:06B. Imama9:31

Line 4A. Lundell10:14C. Reinhardt9:03E. Luostarinen10:51

Pair 1N. Mikkola17:42S. Jones15:40

Pair 2A. Ekblad15:19G. Forsling15:29

Pair 3D. Kulikov14:01U. Balinskis11:14

PIT

Line 1R. Rakell11:54T. Novak12:54S. Crosby11:52

Line 2A. Kuzmenko12:41R. McGroarty12:01B. Lizotte11:51

Line 3C. Dewar11:46N. Robertson10:52E. Soderblom9:53

Line 4E. Malkin9:50V. Koivunen9:13H. Lapierre9:31

Pair 1S. Stastney18:02E. Karlsson15:33

Pair 2D. Carlile13:50K. Korczak14:15

Pair 3K. Letang15:31I. Solovyov12:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.5	+136	-160	3	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	+125	-135	1	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	2.5	+128	-155	3	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.5	-108	-110	1	Under
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	+110	-115	2	Under
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	+135	-164	4	Over
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	+115	-140	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	+134	-155	6	Over
PIT A. Kuzmenko	1.5	+150	-190	1	Under
FLA A. Lundell	1.5	-145	+125	2	Over
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	+170	-240	3	Over
PIT D. Carlile	1.5	+125	-160	3	Over
PIT E. Malkin	1.5	-165	+138	1	Under
PIT N. Robertson	1.5	+100	-115	2	Over
FLA S. Jones	1.5	-130	+105	1	Under
PIT T. Novak	1.5	-140	+110	0	Under
PIT B. Lizotte	0.5	-225	+165	0	Under

3 of 33 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+900	-2800	0	Under
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
FLA B. Imama	0.5	+1200	-2000	0	Under
PIT B. Lizotte	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+150	-165	0	Under
PIT C. Dewar	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
FLA C. Reinhardt	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
FLA C. Schwindt	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
PIT D. Carlile	0.5	+1200	-2000	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+1900	-5000	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+220	-290	1	Over
PIT E. Soderblom	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
FLA G. Hathaway	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+550	-700	1	Over
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+850	-2800	0	Under
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+700	-800	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+205	-240	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+430	-700	2	Over
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+575	-1200	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
FLA U. Balinskis	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+360	-600	0	Under

6 of 31 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+300	-375	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+215	-275	0	Under
FLA B. Imama	0.5	+700	–	0	Under
PIT B. Lizotte	0.5	+330	-500	1	Over
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+145	-190	0	Under
PIT C. Dewar	0.5	+500	–	2	Over
FLA C. Schwindt	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+150	-180	0	Under
PIT D. Carlile	0.5	+390	–	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-111	-105	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+300	-350	0	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+150	-175	1	Over
PIT E. Soderblom	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
FLA G. Hathaway	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+200	-225	1	Over
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-110	-110	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+110	-125	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+190	-200	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+205	-220	1	Over

7 of 31 overs hit (23%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+170	-185	0	Under
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+180	-190	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+115	-140	0	Under
FLA B. Imama	0.5	+450	–	0	Under
PIT B. Lizotte	0.5	+230	-310	1	Over
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	-165	+140	0	Under
PIT C. Dewar	0.5	+295	–	2	Over
FLA C. Schwindt	0.5	+310	–	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	-135	+120	0	Under
PIT D. Carlile	0.5	+300	–	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	-154	+130	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+150	-185	0	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	-135	+115	2	Over
PIT E. Soderblom	0.5	+295	–	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+205	-280	0	Under
FLA G. Hathaway	0.5	+390	–	0	Under
PIT H. Lapierre	0.5	+185	-200	2	Over
PIT K. Korczak	0.5	+370	–	0	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+145	-165	1	Over
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+180	-235	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-210	+180	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+300	–	0	Under
PIT N. Robertson	0.5	+225	-275	2	Over
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	-145	+115	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	-110	+105	0	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	-190	+170	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	-106	-105	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	-160	+140	0	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	-115	+105	0	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+115	-145	1	Over

0 of 16 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
PIT A. Kuzmenko	0.5	+450	-1000	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+250	-275	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+250	-300	Under
PIT E. Karlsson	0.5	+210	-200	Under
PIT E. Malkin	0.5	+300	-350	Under
PIT K. Letang	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+210	-215	Under
PIT R. Rakell	0.5	+235	-350	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+360	-800	Under
PIT S. Crosby	0.5	+180	-215	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+240	-350	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+250	-280	Under
PIT T. Novak	0.5	+310	-425	Under
PIT V. Koivunen	0.5	+260	-450	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PIT A. Silovs	24.5	-120	-105	26	Over
FLA C. Black	23.5	-114	-114	17	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamLars Eller FLA Faces PIT, his team until Nov 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.9, PIT 3.3	FLA 0, PIT 4
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	FLA 25.5, PIT 27.4	FLA 26, PIT 21
Win chance	PIT 57%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.0	3	0.75	0	28%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	2	0.83	0	31%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.4	1	1.02	0	29%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.3	0	1.10	0	34%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.3	4	0.69	0	27%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	3	0.84	0	15%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.3	6	0.86	0	34%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.2	1	0.77	0	29%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	1	0.84	2	26%	1
FLA A. Lundell	1.9	2	0.58	0	20%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.8	0	0.65	0	23%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.7	1	0.53	0	11%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.6	1	0.46	1	9%	0
PIT N. Robertson	1.5	2	0.38	2	18%	2
FLA G. Forsling	1.4	2	0.34	0	9%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	1	0.46	0	16%	0
FLA L. Eller	1.3	0	0.35	0	14%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.3	2	0.39	0	9%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.2	3	0.33	2	14%	0
PIT D. Carlile	1.2	3	0.23	0	8%	0
PIT E. Soderblom	1.1	1	0.28	0	13%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	0	0.36	1	12%	0
FLA C. Reinhardt	1.1	0	0.33	0	15%	0
PIT S. Stastney	1.1	0	0.24	1	5%	0
PIT A. Kuzmenko	1.1	1	0.46	0	19%	0
PIT H. Lapierre	1.0	1	0.44	2	13%	1
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	1	0.21	0	6%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	0	0.20	0	6%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	1.0	1	0.27	0	11%	0
PIT K. Korczak	0.9	0	0.32	0	4%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	0	0.34	1	13%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.7	2	0.21	0	2%	0
FLA G. Hathaway	0.7	0	0.16	0	9%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
FLA B. Imama	0.6	1	0.08	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.