Game Recap: FLA 2, SEA 1 (SO), December 10, 2024

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Game Recap

FLA2

Final/SOTue, Dec 10, 2024Every game that night

SEA1

FLA beat SEA 2-1 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.64 expected goals to 1.96. FLA outshot SEA 33 to 18. G. Forsling had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
FLA	0	1	0	1	2
SEA	1	0	0	0	1

1st 15:39SEAC. Stephenson0.20 xG
2nd 18:59FLAA. Barkov0.03 xG

Team Stats

FLASEA

33Shots on goal18

3.64Expected goals1.96

81Shot attempts45

275v5 shots on goal13

0/2Power play0/3

29Hits16

13Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes4

9Giveaways11

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.64 xGSEA 1.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA32 on goal, 1 scored

SEA17 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	22:52	2:58
A. Barkov	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	22:46	2:29
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	20:57	2:58
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:42	2:57
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	0	6	2	0	0	17:45	1:31
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:05	1:02
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	15:27	1:02
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:20	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:13	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	10:36	0:53
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:24	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	8:28	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	23:27	2:57
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	23:04	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	9	1	2	-1	0	22:50	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	22:41	0:10
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:06	1:03
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	12:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	18	17	1	.944	65:00	Win
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:23	4:20
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:53	4:35
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	11:32	0:11
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	22:25	4:06
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:25	1:25
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	4	3	-1	0	16:59	0:07
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:39	1:56
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:31	4:05
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	15:26	1:40
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	13:30	0:54
M. Stephens	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:59	0:05
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:32	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	22:51	4:33
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	22:30	1:29
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:25	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	2	20:12	0:15
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:24	0:19
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	15:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	33	32	1	.970	64:46	OT loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrandon Montour SEA Faces FLA, his team until Jun 20241 SOG
Old teamMackie Samoskevich SEA Faces FLA, his team until Apr 20266 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.2, SEA 2.8	FLA 2, SEA 1
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	FLA 29.6, SEA 27.0	FLA 33, SEA 18
Win chance	FLA 55%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.0	1	1.06	0	30%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.7	5	0.80	0	31%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.6	1	0.79	1	32%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	1	0.95	1	38%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.5	1	0.57	0	14%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.3	3	1.03	1	28%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.3	0	0.63	0	24%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.0	0	0.63	0	23%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.9	0	0.54	0	22%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.9	9	0.42	0	11%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	3	0.67	0	12%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.8	1	0.43	0	11%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.7	0	0.46	0	17%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.6	3	0.54	0	20%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.6	2	0.49	0	16%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.5	2	0.48	0	17%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	1	0.24	0	6%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.4	0	0.46	1	16%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.4	1	0.40	0	18%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.3	1	0.36	0	16%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.2	6	0.31	0	13%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.2	1	0.38	0	6%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	2	0.70	1	20%	1
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.1	0	0.23	0	5%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.1	0	0.33	0	12%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.1	1	0.20	0	3%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	0	0.21	0	4%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.0	0	0.43	0	20%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.0	1	0.25	0	6%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	0	0.24	0	12%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.0	1	0.20	0	8%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	0	0.30	0	13%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.9	2	0.22	0	5%	0
SEA W. Borgen	0.9	2	0.19	0	4%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.8	0	0.19	0	6%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.7	0	0.18	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.