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Game Recap
FLA7
SJS2
FLA beat SJS 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.81 expected goals to 1.87. FLA outshot SJS 32 to 23. M. Tkachuk led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Kunin had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Bobrovsky stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| SJS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 5:47FLAN. Schmidt0.13 xG
- 1st 6:50SJSC. Ceci0.05 xG
- 1st 7:22SJSW. Smith0.25 xG
- 1st 14:27FLAS. Bennett0.23 xG
- 1st 17:08FLAA. Ekblad0.02 xG
- 2nd 3:01FLAA. Greer0.17 xG
- 2nd 5:35FLAM. TkachukPP0.43 xG
- 2nd 13:07FLAJ. Boqvist0.25 xG
- 2nd 16:25FLAS. Reinhart0.35 xG
Team Stats
FLASJS
32Shots on goal23
4.81Expected goals1.87
68Shot attempts43
315v5 shots on goal22
1/2Power play0/1
19Hits22
9Blocked shots20
2Penalty minutes2
11Giveaways10
2Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 4.81 xGSJS 1.87 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:41 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:36 |
| A. Greer | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 1:37 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:42 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:37 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:40 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:38 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:41 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:53 | 1:45 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:33 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:30 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Smith | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:43 | 0:47 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:45 | 0:44 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 1:16 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 1:15 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:29 | 1:13 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:47 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:45 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:29 | 1:13 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:00 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 22:12 | 1:25 |
| C. Ceci | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:35 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 15 | 11 | 4 | .733 | 23:01 | Loss |
| Y. Askarov | 17 | 14 | 3 | .824 | 36:59 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.6, SJS 2.5 | FLA 7, SJS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 34.2, SJS 26.1 | FLA 32, SJS 23 |
| Win chance | FLA 66% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 3.2 | 2 | 1.22 | 3 | 35% | 1 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.9 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 4 | 0.69 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.7 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.5 | 2 | 1.17 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.4 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.1 | 1 | 0.55 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 1.9 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.8 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.8 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.6 | 4 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.6 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.5 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.3 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.3 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS W. Duehr | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS S. Sabourin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.