Game Recap: FLA 3, STL 2, February 6, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

FLA3

FinalThu, Feb 6, 2025Every game that night

STL2

FLA beat STL 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.16 expected goals to 1.84. FLA outshot STL 34 to 22. M. Tkachuk led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Tkachuk had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Knight stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	2	0	1	3
STL	1	1	0	2

1st 3:31STLZ. Bolduc0.06 xG
1st 7:09FLAM. Samoskevich0.10 xG
1st 16:54FLAM. TkachukPP0.10 xG
2nd 5:18STLO. SundqvistPP0.12 xG
3rd 19:48FLAM. Tkachuk0.15 xG

Team Stats

FLASTL

34Shots on goal22

3.16Expected goals1.84

65Shot attempts39

335v5 shots on goal20

1/1Power play1/2

29Hits26

8Blocked shots9

9Penalty minutes7

13Giveaways25

7Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.16 xGSTL 1.84 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA34 on goal, 3 scored

STL22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	2	1	3	7	1	0	+2	0	20:59	0:24
A. Barkov	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	+1	0	19:52	0:24
S. Reinhart	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	20:26	0:24
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	7	16:43	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	6:43	0:00
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	19:19	0:24
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:46	0:00
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:04	0:00
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	13:55	0:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	13:13	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	8:48	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:58	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	3	4	1	+1	0	23:24	0:24
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	25:32	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	21:06	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	21:03	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:31	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	1	2	3	1	2	+1	0	14:28	2:06
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	20:46	1:41
O. Sundqvist	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	13:32	2:08
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	11:59	0:00
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	20:07	2:08
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:32	0:24
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	18:15	0:51
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	16:56	0:26
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	12:52	0:24
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:10	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	11:30	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:10	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:38	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	22:35	2:09
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	20:44	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:15	0:23
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:57	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	18:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	34	31	3	.912	59:39	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.0, STL 2.7	FLA 3, STL 2
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	FLA 31.2, STL 26.6	FLA 34, STL 22
Win chance	FLA 55%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	2.9	3	0.57	1	24%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.9	7	0.94	3	29%	2
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.8	4	0.75	0	30%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.6	0	0.76	0	31%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	1	0.86	1	36%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.3	0	0.92	2	26%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.2	2	0.39	0	11%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.1	2	0.58	0	22%	0
STL R. Thomas	2.0	1	0.84	1	23%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	2	0.73	0	26%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.9	3	0.45	1	11%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.9	2	0.40	0	10%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.9	2	0.35	1	15%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	1.9	2	0.42	0	17%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.8	2	0.53	0	17%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	1	0.43	0	7%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.7	2	0.56	0	20%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	0	0.40	0	21%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.4	1	0.24	0	5%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	1	0.46	0	8%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.2	3	0.30	2	12%	1
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	1	0.34	0	13%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	0	0.26	0	10%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.1	0	0.25	0	6%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.1	1	0.34	0	15%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.21	1	11%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.0	2	0.22	0	5%	0
STL N. Leddy	1.0	3	0.30	0	4%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	2	0.20	0	9%	0
STL R. Faksa	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	2	0.30	1	11%	1
STL N. Walker	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.9	1	0.20	0	6%	0
STL R. Suter	0.8	1	0.19	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.