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Game Recap
FLA2
TBL0
FLA beat TBL 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.47 expected goals to 2.42. E. Cernak had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. S. Bobrovsky stopped 19 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| TBL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 4:15FLAN. Schmidt0.01 xG
- 3rd 19:56FLAS. BennettEN0.62 xG
Team Stats
FLATBL
23Shots on goal19
3.47Expected goals2.42
37Shot attempts58
185v5 shots on goal14
0/3Power play0/5
34Hits38
20Blocked shots6
16Penalty minutes15
14Giveaways15
1Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 3.47 xGTBL 2.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:45 | 4:56 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 4:36 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:41 | 2:44 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 17:10 | 2:34 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:52 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:33 | 1:01 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:00 | 3:19 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:31 | 4:39 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:24 | 4:41 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 2:49 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:05 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:20 | 0:06 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 27:31 | 5:30 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:48 | 2:39 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:55 | 0:12 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:22 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 19 | 19 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 23:10 | 7:20 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 22:41 | 6:26 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:58 | 7:43 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:37 | 7:11 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 1:48 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15:09 | 0:50 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:42 | 2:01 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 1:59 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 1:23 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:49 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 27:27 | 6:34 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:30 | 2:39 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:11 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 58:05 | Loss |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 3.0, TBL 3.1 | FLA 2, TBL 0 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 29.0, TBL 25.8 | FLA 23, TBL 19 |
| Win chance | TBL 52% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.9 | 1 | 0.91 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.8 | 1 | 1.24 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.8 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.7 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | 1 | 0.77 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.4 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.2 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.2 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.1 | 0 | 0.82 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.0 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.0 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.4 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 0.9 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.