Game Recap: FLA 5, TBL 2, December 15, 2025

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Game Recap

FLA5

FinalMon, Dec 15, 2025Every game that night

TBL2

FLA beat TBL 5-2, with the chances close: 2.54 expected goals to 2.04. S. Reinhart led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Reinhart had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Bobrovsky stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	2	2	1	5
TBL	0	1	1	2

1st 2:16FLAS. ReinhartSH0.10 xG
1st 3:48FLAA. Lundell0.16 xG
2nd 11:48FLAB. Marchand0.14 xG
2nd 18:08FLAS. ReinhartPP0.24 xG
2nd 19:27TBLM. Crozier0.04 xG
3rd 2:11TBLJ. Moser0.07 xG
3rd 6:37FLAC. Verhaeghe0.28 xG

Team Stats

FLATBL

24Shots on goal28

2.54Expected goals2.04

34Shot attempts62

145v5 shots on goal22

1/4Power play0/5

25Hits33

17Blocked shots3

17Penalty minutes17

16Giveaways14

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 2.54 xGTBL 2.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA24 on goal, 5 scored

TBL27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	2	0	2	6	0	0	+2	0	22:19	4:59
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	1	2	3	2	1	+2	0	14:57	4:20
A. Lundell	C	1	0	1	1	2	2	+2	0	19:50	2:49
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	16:42	2:08
B. Marchand	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+2	2	15:55	3:02
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	18:18	0:33
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	+2	0	16:04	4:30
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	15:24	0:38
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:02	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	7:59	0:55
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	6:24	0:55
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	5:40	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	23:06	0:49
U. Balinskis	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	2	16:34	0:55
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	2	2	5	+1	0	26:14	4:45
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	7	19:24	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	16:11	0:55
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	4	13:57	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	20:41	7:59
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	17:28	7:21
J. Guentzel	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	5	20:24	8:16
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	2	18:40	8:03
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	16:53	1:20
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:59	1:50
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	7	1	-1	0	14:53	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	3	6	0	-2	0	13:33	1:27
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:32	3:15
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:06	0:07
S. Sabourin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:25	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	9:05	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	1	1	5	2	1	-1	2	24:56	8:29
J. Moser	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	+2	0	21:50	0:01
M. Crozier	D	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	2	19:59	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	2	19:08	1:47
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	13:04	0:05
S. Santini	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	24	19	5	.792	59:56	Loss
B. Halverson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1E. Rodrigues15:53M. Samoskevich14:34A. Greer15:02

Line 2S. Reinhart12:11A. Lundell11:52E. Luostarinen11:50

Line 3C. Verhaeghe10:33S. Bennett9:42B. Marchand9:42

Line 4J. Boqvist7:04J. Studnicka5:40N. Gregor5:29

Pair 1J. Petry15:16U. Balinskis13:33

Pair 2A. Ekblad17:11G. Forsling11:08

Pair 3S. Jones16:14N. Mikkola14:26

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde13:07P. Holmberg11:59Z. Girgensons11:31

Line 2J. Guentzel12:04B. Point12:38O. Bjorkstrand10:07

Line 3S. Sabourin9:25N. Paul11:04C. Douglas9:05

Line 4N. Kucherov10:33A. Cirelli11:07B. Hagel7:12

Pair 1J. Moser17:29D. Raddysh13:25

Pair 2C. D'Astous15:15M. Crozier17:01

Pair 3S. Santini11:53D. Carlile12:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayYanni Gourde TBL Turns 34 that day0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 2.8, TBL 3.1	FLA 5, TBL 2
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	FLA 27.3, TBL 27.5	FLA 24, TBL 28
Win chance	TBL 56%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	3	1.48	0	35%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	2	0.65	0	27%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.6	1	0.95	0	36%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.5	1	0.77	1	28%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.4	6	0.78	2	33%	2
TBL B. Hagel	2.3	2	0.81	0	28%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.3	3	0.66	2	26%	1
TBL D. Raddysh	2.3	5	0.80	1	13%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.1	1	0.59	1	19%	1
TBL B. Point	2.1	2	0.85	2	34%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	3	0.46	0	17%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	1	0.38	1	15%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.8	2	0.42	1	11%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.7	1	0.55	0	22%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.7	0	0.34	0	10%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	0	0.37	2	9%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.6	1	0.53	1	20%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.6	3	0.43	0	20%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.5	1	0.44	0	14%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.5	2	0.40	0	8%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.5	2	0.20	1	2%	1
TBL Y. Gourde	1.4	0	0.45	0	15%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.4	2	0.31	0	13%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	0	0.19	0	12%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.3	0	0.19	0	5%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.3	2	0.34	1	6%	1
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	1	0.29	0	12%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.0	0	0.17	2	5%	0
FLA J. Studnicka	1.0	0	0.11	0	6%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.0	0	0.13	0	7%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.9	2	0.21	0	6%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.8	2	0.19	0	3%	0
TBL S. Santini	0.7	0	0.17	0	2%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.7	0	0.26	0	8%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.6	1	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.