Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
FLA1
TBL6
TBL beat FLA 6-1, with the chances close: 2.56 expected goals to 2.99. O. Bjorkstrand led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Samoskevich had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 33 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TBL | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 2:08TBLB. Hagel0.05 xG
- 1st 14:08TBLZ. Girgensons0.12 xG
- 2nd 1:14TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.27 xG
- 2nd 17:50TBLE. Cernak0.05 xG
- 3rd 6:09TBLP. Holmberg0.10 xG
- 3rd 9:50FLAM. SamoskevichPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 15:41TBLO. Bjorkstrand0.11 xG
Team Stats
FLATBL
34Shots on goal28
2.99Expected goals2.56
66Shot attempts41
275v5 shots on goal19
1/6Power play1/4
17Hits34
5Blocked shots16
76Penalty minutes91
15Giveaways17
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.99 xGTBL 2.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:47 | 7:48 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:01 | 4:04 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:23 | 1:19 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:49 | 7:15 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:10 | 2:39 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 12 | 16:02 | 5:20 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:18 | 3:16 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:57 | 3:17 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 21 | 13:40 | 4:14 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:36 | 2:37 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:19 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 10 | 11:38 | 1:20 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:58 | 6:32 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 22:05 | 3:52 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:45 | 2:15 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 15 | 18:42 | 1:35 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 | 12:25 | 0:09 |
| M. Hovorka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:09 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 25 | 20 | 5 | .800 | 45:59 | Loss |
| S. Bobrovsky | 3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 13:51 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Holmberg | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:40 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 16:01 | 5:11 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 19:28 | 3:11 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:20 | 0:03 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 14 | 17:54 | 3:11 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 17:07 | 3:07 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 15:23 | 2:00 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 10 | 14:16 | 0:03 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 13:15 | 2:00 |
| S. Sabourin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:42 | 1:27 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6:13 | 0:00 |
| E. Cernak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:13 | 0:03 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 22:59 | 0:20 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 10 | 19:37 | 3:11 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:52 | 1:43 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 17 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 59:56 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1S. Reinhart12:34A. Lundell12:04E. Luostarinen12:27
Line 2C. Schwindt11:00S. Vilmanis11:40A. Greer10:32
Line 3S. Bennett10:06M. Tkachuk9:09C. Verhaeghe10:14
Line 4L. Kunin8:59J. Boqvist9:04M. Samoskevich10:57
Pair 1N. Mikkola15:19U. Balinskis17:35
Pair 2J. Petry16:37G. Forsling13:52
Pair 3D. Sebrango11:59M. Hovorka10:32
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov14:03B. Hagel14:17J. Guentzel12:15
Line 2Z. Girgensons12:30P. Holmberg13:08Y. Gourde11:30
Line 3D. James10:36G. Goncalves8:25O. Bjorkstrand10:50
Line 4S. Sabourin9:23C. Douglas6:09J. Finley5:15
Pair 1R. McDonagh16:54E. Cernak16:50
Pair 2D. Raddysh15:25J. Moser12:29
Pair 3V. Hedman10:14D. Carlile14:27
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.7, TBL 3.6 | FLA 1, TBL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 25.6, TBL 27.3 | FLA 34, TBL 28 |
| Win chance | TBL 65% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL B. Hagel | 3.0 | 1 | 1.24 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.0 | 3 | 1.74 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 2.7 | 2 | 0.99 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.6 | 1 | 1.17 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.6 | 3 | 0.87 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.5 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.1 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.5 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.5 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.5 | 5 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.4 | 7 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| TBL P. Holmberg | 1.4 | 3 | 0.38 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 1.3 | 5 | 0.53 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 4 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.7 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA S. Vilmanis | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL C. Douglas | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL J. Finley | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL S. Sabourin | 0.5 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.5 | 2 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.