Game Recap: FLA 6, TOR 2, April 11, 2026

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Game Recap

FLA6

FinalSat, Apr 11, 2026Every game that night

TOR2

FLA beat TOR 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.49 expected goals to 2.66. M. Samoskevich led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Schwindt had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. D. Tarasov stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	2	1	3	6
TOR	0	2	0	2

1st 0:23FLAE. Luostarinen0.09 xG
1st 5:32FLAC. Reinhardt0.03 xG
2nd 1:32FLAT. Nosek0.11 xG
2nd 10:55TORW. NylanderPP0.25 xG
2nd 13:16TORW. Nylander0.24 xG
3rd 4:13FLAM. Samoskevich0.15 xG
3rd 15:56FLAA. GreerEN0.89 xG
3rd 18:07FLAT. NosekEN0.46 xG

Team Stats

FLATOR

25Shots on goal19

3.49Expected goals2.66

55Shot attempts53

235v5 shots on goal15

0/1Power play1/1

23Hits26

15Blocked shots14

2Penalty minutes0

10Giveaways12

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

FLA 3.49 xGTOR 2.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

FLA25 on goal, 6 scored

TOR19 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Luostarinen	C	1	2	3	1	0	0	+2	0	15:10	0:54
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	2	3	3	0	0	+3	0	13:37	0:57
A. Greer	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+3	0	14:49	1:06
T. Nosek	LW	2	0	2	2	1	0	+2	0	14:40	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	16:36	1:03
C. Reinhardt	LW	1	0	1	1	4	1	+1	0	15:29	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	15:04	0:58
W. Skoog	C	0	0	0	2	2	3	+1	0	15:49	0:46
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	15:41	0:56
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	15:18	1:04
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:52	0:00
N. Foote	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	14:13	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+3	0	19:30	0:00
M. Alscher	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+3	0	19:21	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+2	0	21:54	0:54
M. Benning	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	21:38	1:06
L. Jansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:42	0:16
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	17:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	19	17	2	.895	60:00	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	2	0	2	5	0	1	-1	19:48	0:21
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	17:01	0:21
E. Cowan	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	-4	16:59	0:21
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:56	0:00
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-4	16:30	0:21
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-3	15:23	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	14:48	0:00
L. Haymes	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	14:40	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	14:38	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	13:06	0:00
J. Quillan	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	12:50	0:00
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	9:37	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	21:02	0:21
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	20:13	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-3	19:46	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	19:21	0:00
W. Villeneuve	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	18:45	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	18:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	23	19	4	.826	57:55	Loss
A. Akhtyamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

FLA

Line 1V. Hinostroza15:33C. Reinhardt15:12L. Kunin14:52

Line 2J. Boqvist14:36W. Skoog14:54C. Schwindt14:14

Line 3E. Luostarinen13:19A. Greer12:46M. Samoskevich12:04

Line 4T. Nosek13:11N. Gregor12:47N. Foote13:10

Pair 1G. Forsling20:03M. Benning19:56

Pair 2D. Sebrango19:20M. Alscher19:10

Pair 3T. Bjornfot15:37L. Jansson17:06

TOR

Line 1W. Nylander17:22M. Maccelli15:52J. Tavares14:46

Line 2N. Robertson14:27L. Haymes14:25S. Lorentz13:44

Line 3M. Domi14:22M. Knies13:20E. Cowan14:48

Line 4C. Jarnkrok12:02J. Quillan11:54M. Pezzetta9:37

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson19:20W. Villeneuve18:45

Pair 2M. Rielly18:33T. Stecher18:42

Pair 3J. McCabe17:25S. Benoit18:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSergei Bobrovsky TOR First game against FLA since he left (his team until Apr 2026)0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	FLA 3.3, TOR 3.2	FLA 6, TOR 2
Total goals	6.6	8
Shots on goal	FLA 31.1, TOR 26.3	FLA 25, TOR 19
Win chance	FLA 51%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.6	3	0.54	3	19%	1
TOR W. Nylander	2.5	5	1.15	2	38%	2
TOR J. Tavares	2.3	1	0.90	1	33%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.8	2	0.45	2	17%	1
FLA G. Forsling	1.8	2	0.41	0	11%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.8	1	0.58	0	11%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.7	1	0.52	3	16%	1
TOR M. Knies	1.6	1	0.75	0	26%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.5	1	0.57	1	20%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.5	2	0.42	0	19%	0
FLA N. Gregor	1.4	3	0.22	1	10%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	1	0.44	0	8%	0
FLA V. Hinostroza	1.2	1	0.29	1	11%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.2	1	0.33	0	14%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.2	1	0.47	0	14%	0
FLA N. Foote	1.2	1	0.26	0	14%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.2	0	0.51	0	15%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.1	2	0.38	0	6%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
FLA L. Kunin	1.1	0	0.18	0	10%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	1.0	0	0.19	1	3%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
FLA C. Reinhardt	1.0	1	0.22	1	10%	1
FLA C. Schwindt	1.0	4	0.26	0	10%	0
FLA T. Nosek	1.0	2	0.23	2	6%	2
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	0	0.31	0	15%	0
FLA M. Benning	0.9	1	0.27	0	5%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.9	2	0.12	0	2%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.8	0	0.12	0	3%	0
TOR J. Quillan	0.7	1	0.14	0	8%	0
TOR M. Pezzetta	0.5	1	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 31 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.