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Game Recap
FLA3
WPG6
WPG beat FLA 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.32 expected goals to 2.55. M. Scheifele scored three for WPG. C. Hellebuyck stopped 20 of 23.
Team Stats
FLAWPG
23Shots on goal27
2.55Expected goals3.32
58Shot attempts64
185v5 shots on goal16
2/4Power play1/4
36Hits20
16Blocked shots10
10Penalty minutes10
16Giveaways16
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 2.55 xGWPG 3.32 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:00 | 4:13 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:25 | 4:15 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:26 | 3:41 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:45 | 4:15 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:17 | 2:53 |
| A. Greer | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:13 | 1:01 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:42 | 1:01 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:29 | 0:38 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:45 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 11:33 | 0:12 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 10:40 | 0:12 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:36 | 1:01 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:57 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 25:03 | 0:38 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 23:37 | 0:18 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:58 | 1:01 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:11 | 1:13 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:45 | 3:50 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 58:08 | Loss |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:56 | 4:43 |
| K. Connor | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:29 | 4:43 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:34 | 4:43 |
| M. Barron | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 8:54 | 0:00 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:45 | 4:43 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:27 | 0:28 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:40 | 0:28 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 12:51 | 0:28 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:26 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 26:00 | 4:43 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 22:12 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:02 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:28 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 59:54 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.9, WPG 3.0 | FLA 3, WPG 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 30.6, WPG 28.6 | FLA 23, WPG 27 |
| Win chance | WPG 52% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.0 | 4 | 0.87 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.0 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 3 | 0.82 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.6 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 2 | 0.75 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.3 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.3 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 3 | 0.76 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.0 | 1 | 0.67 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.0 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 1.9 | 4 | 0.83 | 3 | 30% | 3 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.9 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.8 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.7 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.1 | 3 | 0.19 | 2 | 10% | 2 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.6 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.