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Game Recap
FLA5
WSH2
FLA beat WSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.09 expected goals to 2.63. S. Bennett led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Tarasov stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| WSH | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 13:23FLAA. Greer0.05 xG
- 2nd 2:04WSHJ. Chychrun0.08 xG
- 2nd 10:04WSHJ. Chychrun0.02 xG
- 2nd 11:40FLAS. Bennett0.41 xG
- 2nd 15:16FLAU. BalinskisPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 18:40FLAA. LundellEN0.55 xG
- 3rd 19:26FLAC. VerhaegheEN0.93 xG
Team Stats
FLAWSH
31Shots on goal24
5.09Expected goals2.63
66Shot attempts53
245v5 shots on goal17
1/2Power play0/1
22Hits30
8Blocked shots18
4Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways17
9Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
FLA 5.09 xGWSH 2.63 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 20:22 | 2:45 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:05 | 2:45 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:19 | 2:43 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:41 | 2:44 |
| A. Greer | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:02 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:01 |
| S. Vilmanis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:51 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:01 | 2:12 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:59 | 0:33 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:14 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:36 | 1:29 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:05 | 2:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 16:08 | 2:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:49 | 2:00 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:21 | 0:00 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6:36 | 0:31 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:02 | 2:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 59:37 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
FLA
Line 1S. Reinhart17:35A. Lundell16:51E. Luostarinen17:36
Line 2C. Verhaeghe16:27S. Bennett16:11A. Greer15:28
Line 3E. Rodrigues12:13M. Samoskevich12:06S. Vilmanis10:49
Line 4L. Kunin7:50J. Boqvist7:27C. Schwindt7:51
Pair 1A. Ekblad24:08G. Forsling24:10
Pair 2N. Mikkola16:57U. Balinskis14:41
Pair 3J. Petry13:55T. Bjornfot12:00
WSH
Line 1C. McMichael17:47A. Protas20:30R. Leonard17:56
Line 2D. Strome15:30A. Beauvillier15:44A. Ovechkin13:43
Line 3N. Dowd13:51E. Frank12:37I. Miroshnichenko11:48
Line 4B. Duhaime7:20B. Leason5:47H. Lapierre6:05
Pair 1J. Carlson19:28J. Chychrun21:46
Pair 2M. Fehérváry16:25M. Roy18:48
Pair 3R. Sandin16:05T. Riemsdyk13:05
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FLA 2.9, WSH 3.4 | FLA 5, WSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | FLA 27.7, WSH 28.0 | FLA 31, WSH 24 |
| Win chance | WSH 58% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH J. Chychrun | 3.1 | 3 | 0.71 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.1 | 1 | 1.03 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.9 | 5 | 0.71 | 3 | 28% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 4 | 0.91 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.4 | 3 | 0.72 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.3 | 2 | 0.65 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.77 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 2.0 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.0 | 2 | 0.98 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH B. Leason | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.7 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.6 | 2 | 0.07 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 27 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.