BOS beat LAK 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.41 expected goals to 3.71. LAK outshot BOS 34 to 26. T. Moore had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. J. Swayman stopped 33 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 5:22LAKT. Moore0.33 xG
- 2nd 16:50BOSE. Lindholm0.06 xG
- OT 3:07BOSD. Pastrnak0.16 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 3.71 xGBOS 1.41 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Moore | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 3:02 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 3:09 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:38 | 3:21 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:02 | 4:47 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:02 | 4:45 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 4:57 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:56 | 4:49 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:05 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:00 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:08 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:03 | 2:28 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:05 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:17 | 0:42 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:09 | 0:09 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:05 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 17:02 | 5:05 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:28 | 2:59 |
| K. Burroughs | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:09 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 63:07 | OT loss |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:12 | 5:34 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:03 | 5:20 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:35 | 5:17 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:52 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:45 | 4:53 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 2:52 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:43 | 2:49 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 2:34 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 2:24 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 23:14 | 5:15 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:48 | 2:55 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 34 | 33 | 1 | .971 | 62:42 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.7, BOS 2.9 | LAK 1, BOS 2 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 29.7, BOS 27.2 | LAK 34, BOS 26 |
| Win chance | BOS 54% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.2 | 2 | 1.10 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.4 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.9 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.8 | 7 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.3 | 4 | 0.77 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.2 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 5 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 2.0 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.8 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 1.8 | 5 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.8 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.5 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.4 | 5 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.4 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK K. Burroughs | 1.0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.