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Game Recap
LAK1
BUF4
BUF beat LAK 4-1, with the chances close: 3.07 expected goals to 2.65. A. Tuch scored three for BUF. A. Tuch had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. A. Lyon stopped 37 of 38.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BUF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 7:14BUFA. TuchPP0.07 xG
- 1st 11:17BUFM. Samuelsson0.06 xG
- 2nd 6:29BUFA. Tuch0.09 xG
- 2nd 7:47LAKA. KempePP0.08 xG
- 3rd 19:00BUFA. TuchEN0.52 xG
Team Stats
LAKBUF
38Shots on goal32
2.65Expected goals3.07
67Shot attempts52
335v5 shots on goal27
1/2Power play1/3
30Hits9
11Blocked shots13
28Penalty minutes28
20Giveaways16
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.65 xGBUF 3.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:23 | 1:28 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:49 | 1:29 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:42 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:43 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:33 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:31 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:40 |
| T. Ward | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:38 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 12 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 14 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:04 | 1:27 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:48 | 0:44 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:54 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:50 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:58 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:30 | 2:01 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:26 | 3:14 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:04 | 4:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 3:53 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 2:16 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 2:08 |
| K. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12:50 | 0:02 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 25:53 | 4:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:24 | 0:39 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:40 | 1:50 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:24 | 1:24 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| Z. Metsa | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:19 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1J. Armia14:44A. Kuzmenko14:06K. Fiala15:46
Line 2C. Perry13:50A. Laferriere13:21A. Kempe14:15
Line 3W. Foegele13:08T. Moore13:36Q. Byfield13:23
Line 4T. Ward11:10S. Helenius10:06J. Malott9:39
Pair 1D. Doughty20:24M. Anderson18:16
Pair 2B. Dumoulin16:15C. Ceci14:38
Pair 3B. Clarke19:07J. Edmundson13:36
BUF
Line 1T. Thompson14:04Z. Benson14:28A. Tuch14:33
Line 3K. Helenius13:07J. Doan12:16N. Ostlund11:50
Line 4P. Krebs12:48T. Kozak11:45B. Malenstyn11:43
Pair 2M. Samuelsson21:18R. Dahlin20:37
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.1, BUF 3.2 | LAK 1, BUF 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 27.5, BUF 27.2 | LAK 38, BUF 32 |
| Win chance | BUF 52% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 5 | 0.96 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.8 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.7 | 4 | 0.87 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.7 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.1 | 7 | 0.71 | 3 | 27% | 3 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.0 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.0 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.8 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 3 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF K. Helenius | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 1.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 1 | 0.58 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF M. Kesselring | 1.2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 1.1 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.9 | 4 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Metsa | 0.4 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.