Game Recap: LAK 1, CHI 2, October 27, 2026

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Game Recap

LAK1

FinalTue, Oct 27, 2026Every game that night

CHI2

CHI beat LAK 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.77 expected goals to 2.93. Q. Byfield had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Knight stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	1	0	0	1
CHI	0	1	1	2

1st 2:31LAKS. Helenius0.26 xG
2nd 16:40CHIR. KantserovPP0.21 xG
3rd 7:17CHIW. Kaiser0.10 xG

Team Stats

LAKCHI

26Shots on goal27

2.93Expected goals3.77

58Shot attempts69

215v5 shots on goal24

0/3Power play1/3

28Hits15

16Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways12

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.93 xGCHI 3.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK26 on goal, 1 scored

CHI26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	8:19	1:36
J. Wright	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	7:59	0:00
S. Helenius	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	7:22	0:00
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	23:54	3:56
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	22:01	4:09
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	20:27	4:13
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	0	20:21	4:06
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:51	1:41
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	15:00	1:43
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	14:39	0:16
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	13:26	1:55
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	4	13:14	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	22:25	4:21
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	22:17	1:39
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	18:40	0:09
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:10	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	17:10	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	16:49	0:16

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	27	25	2	.926	58:32	Loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	19:21	2:08
F. Nazar	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	16:19	0:16
R. Kantserov	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	15:52	2:08
P. Kane	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:23	2:08
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	13:44	2:08
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:34	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:39	2:08
A. Frondell	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:32	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	6	0	-1	0	13:43	0:13
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:18	0:03
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	12:02	0:13
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	11:28	0:03
W. Kaiser	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	20:14	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	25:42	0:13
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	25:36	0:16
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:37	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	16:01	0:03
K. Korchinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kempe16:28A. Panarin18:30A. Laferriere14:41

Line 2E. Haula13:06J. Armia12:58S. Laughton12:26

Line 3T. Moore13:51T. Ward11:25Q. Byfield14:31

Line 4S. Helenius7:22J. Wright7:59A. Lee6:43

Pair 1B. Dumoulin16:07M. Anderson16:48

Pair 2B. Clarke19:18E. Gustafsson16:40

Pair 3J. Edmundson16:34C. Ceci15:13

CHI

Line 1T. Bertuzzi12:25A. Frondell14:01R. Donato12:15

Line 2C. Bedard16:07R. Kantserov13:43R. Greene16:39

Line 3F. Nazar12:23O. Moore11:13P. Kane11:59

Line 4J. Greenway9:58C. Smith10:46T. Teravainen8:35

Pair 1W. Kaiser17:35A. Levshunov17:47

Pair 2I. Cole20:23A. Vlasic19:59

Pair 3K. Korchinski8:55S. Rinzel15:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 16 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
LAK A. Kempe	2.5	-120	-106	1	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	-105	-120	5	Over
LAK A. Panarin	2.5	-125	+108	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	-140	+125	3	Over
CHI P. Kane	2.5	+110	-140	1	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	+125	-145	6	Over
CHI A. Frondell	1.5	-155	+130	1	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	1.5	+135	-160	3	Over
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	-130	+110	1	Under
LAK E. Gustafsson	1.5	+135	-150	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	1.5	+100	-120	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	1.5	-115	+100	2	Over
CHI R. Donato	1.5	+110	-145	1	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	-105	+105	2	Over
LAK T. Moore	1.5	-170	+135	2	Over
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	+135	-175	1	Under

2 of 32 overs hit (6%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+250	-320	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
CHI A. Vlasic	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+2400	-10000	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
CHI C. Smith	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+330	-400	0	Under
CHI I. Cole	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
CHI J. Greenway	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
CHI K. Korchinski	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
CHI O. Moore	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+275	-360	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+300	-350	0	Under
CHI R. Donato	0.5	+500	-650	0	Under
CHI R. Greene	0.5	+390	-700	0	Under
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	+1000	-2800	1	Over
LAK S. Laughton	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
CHI S. Rinzel	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+260	-320	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+410	-450	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+400	-475	0	Under
LAK T. Ward	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
CHI W. Kaiser	0.5	+1600	-2800	1	Over

4 of 15 overs hit (27%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+148	-155	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+176	-190	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-102	-110	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+100	-120	1	Over
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+142	-190	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+270	-275	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+112	-120	1	Over
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+200	-200	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+255	-320	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+210	-235	1	Over

4 of 15 overs hit (27%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+115	-145	0	Under
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	-150	+135	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	-120	+110	0	Under
CHI A. Levshunov	0.5	+270	-340	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-215	+190	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+140	-170	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	-200	+165	1	Over
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+125	-150	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+190	-230	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+125	-135	1	Over
CHI P. Kane	0.5	-164	+140	1	Over
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+104	-118	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	-106	-110	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+150	-160	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+116	-135	1	Over

2 of 12 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CHI A. Frondell	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
CHI C. Bedard	0.5	+175	-165	1	Over
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+250	-425	0	Under
CHI F. Nazar	0.5	+425	-500	0	Under
CHI P. Kane	0.5	+175	-215	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+270	-325	0	Under
CHI T. Bertuzzi	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
CHI T. Teravainen	0.5	+200	-275	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CHI S. Knight	24.5	-128	-104	25	Over
LAK A. Forsberg	22.5	-110	-105	25	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
LAK B. Clarke	2.5	+140	-200	4	Over
CHI I. Cole	2.5	+130	-185	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.0, CHI 2.8	LAK 1, CHI 2
Total goals	5.7	3
Shots on goal	LAK 27.9, CHI 24.9	LAK 26, CHI 27
Win chance	LAK 53%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CHI C. Bedard	3.0	3	1.04	1	31%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	1	0.95	0	35%	0
LAK A. Panarin	2.9	0	1.18	0	36%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.8	5	0.71	0	25%	0
CHI P. Kane	2.3	1	0.86	1	24%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.2	2	0.50	0	20%	0
CHI R. Kantserov	2.1	4	0.77	1	30%	1
LAK Q. Byfield	1.9	6	0.55	0	21%	0
CHI A. Frondell	1.9	1	0.51	0	16%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.9	2	0.55	1	21%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.8	1	0.52	0	11%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.7	1	0.36	0	16%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.6	2	0.67	0	25%	0
LAK E. Haula	1.6	0	0.42	0	17%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.5	1	0.45	0	19%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.5	0	0.40	0	16%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.4	3	0.43	0	13%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.4	2	0.34	0	15%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.3	0	0.24	0	6%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
LAK E. Gustafsson	1.2	0	0.39	0	7%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	3	0.29	0	4%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.1	1	0.56	1	19%	0
CHI J. Greenway	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
LAK A. Lee	1.0	2	0.22	1	9%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	3	0.25	0	4%	0
LAK T. Ward	0.9	3	0.17	0	7%	0
CHI C. Smith	0.9	0	0.22	0	10%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.9	2	0.23	1	6%	1
LAK S. Helenius	0.8	1	0.16	1	8%	1
CHI K. Korchinski	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
CHI I. Cole	0.8	0	0.22	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.7	0	0.24	0	5%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	1	0.20	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.