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Game Recap
LAK2
DAL6
DAL beat LAK 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.41 expected goals to 3.44. R. Hintz led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). W. Foegele had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Oettinger stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| DAL | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 4:21DALJ. Robertson0.17 xG
- 1st 6:44LAKW. Foegele0.19 xG
- 1st 11:59DALM. DuchenePP0.12 xG
- 1st 14:11DALL. Stankoven0.55 xG
- 2nd 4:57DALW. JohnstonPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 13:51LAKT. Moore0.04 xG
- 3rd 4:06DALL. Stankoven0.85 xG
- 3rd 6:19DALS. SteelSH0.16 xG
Team Stats
LAKDAL
31Shots on goal31
3.44Expected goals5.41
76Shot attempts61
245v5 shots on goal22
0/4Power play2/3
28Hits15
15Blocked shots16
6Penalty minutes8
21Giveaways8
10Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 3.44 xGDAL 5.41 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Foegele | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:15 | 2:52 |
| T. Moore | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:53 | 3:32 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:23 | 3:34 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:00 | 5:05 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:28 | 3:20 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:12 | 4:24 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:31 | 4:28 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:20 | 4:40 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:43 | 0:02 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 21:29 | 5:03 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 2:55 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:05 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 31 | 25 | 6 | .806 | 59:58 | Loss |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:16 | 2:37 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:37 | 2:46 |
| S. Steel | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:08 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:06 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:25 | 2:43 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 2:37 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:07 | 1:36 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:39 | 1:39 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:28 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:53 | 1:29 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:05 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:35 | 2:58 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:30 | 0:09 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 20:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 19:04 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:33 | 1:24 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 59:54 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.6, DAL 2.9 | LAK 2, DAL 6 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 26.4, DAL 27.1 | LAK 31, DAL 31 |
| Win chance | DAL 56% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.1 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.0 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.7 | 4 | 0.88 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.2 | 3 | 0.52 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 6 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 3 | 0.64 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.0 | 3 | 0.70 | 4 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.0 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 4 | 0.36 | 2 | 13% | 2 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.7 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.6 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.6 | 5 | 0.53 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.