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Game Recap
LAK3
DAL2
LAK beat DAL 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.47 expected goals to 3.25. W. Johnston led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Bourque had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Kuemper stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 18:48LAKC. PerryPP0.32 xG
- 2nd 4:58DALJ. RobertsonPP0.05 xG
- 2nd 6:27LAKC. Ceci0.15 xG
- 3rd 2:32DALW. JohnstonPP0.45 xG
- OT 0:37LAKA. Kempe0.27 xG
Team Stats
LAKDAL
25Shots on goal31
2.47Expected goals3.25
46Shot attempts58
185v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play2/5
14Hits18
16Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes6
20Giveaways15
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.47 xGDAL 3.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:32 | 3:42 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:56 | 3:17 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 3:59 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 3:17 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 1:26 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 1:42 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:37 | 1:42 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:18 | 3:43 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:01 | 2:06 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 20:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 2:11 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 60:37 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:11 | 6:12 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:10 | 6:14 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:38 | 6:40 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:08 | 6:48 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:56 | 1:06 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:20 | 1:36 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:35 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28:07 | 6:24 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:39 | 1:26 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:39 | 1:34 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 60:04 | OT loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1A. Kempe13:50A. Laferriere13:29A. Kuzmenko10:02
Line 2K. Fiala13:25Q. Byfield12:02J. Armia12:18
Line 3P. Danault12:58T. Moore11:31W. Foegele10:21
Line 4A. Turcotte7:37J. Malott8:36C. Perry12:33
Pair 1D. Doughty18:27B. Dumoulin17:02
Pair 2M. Anderson15:27C. Ceci14:28
Pair 3J. Edmundson12:57B. Clarke14:07
DAL
Line 1J. Robertson17:58W. Johnston15:58M. Bourque15:41
Line 2M. Rantanen14:10R. Hintz11:55S. Steel11:17
Line 3C. Blackwell8:47A. Erne9:17T. Seguin13:02
Line 4R. Faksa9:01J. Hryckowian8:02N. Bastian3:06
Pair 1E. Lindell17:27M. Heiskanen17:09
Pair 2T. Harley18:56I. Lyubushkin15:16
Pair 3A. Petrovic12:05L. Bichsel12:03
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.1, DAL 3.0 | LAK 3, DAL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 29.6, DAL 26.4 | LAK 25, DAL 31 |
| Win chance | LAK 51% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.0 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.9 | 3 | 0.87 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.6 | 4 | 0.97 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.6 | 1 | 1.09 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 4 | 0.77 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.2 | 1 | 0.72 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.2 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 4 | 0.82 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.0 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.8 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.5 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.3 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.8 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.