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Game Recap
LAK1
DAL4
DAL beat LAK 4-1, with the chances close: 3.30 expected goals to 2.72. M. Rantanen led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Blackwell had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. C. DeSmith stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
- 2nd 11:03LAKA. KuzmenkoPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 15:42DALM. Duchene0.21 xG
- 3rd 6:12DALO. Bäck0.09 xG
- 3rd 16:11DALM. Rantanen0.21 xG
- 3rd 19:28DALW. JohnstonEN0.57 xG
Team Stats
LAKDAL
28Shots on goal26
2.72Expected goals3.30
62Shot attempts51
205v5 shots on goal23
1/3Power play0/2
30Hits19
15Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes8
20Giveaways14
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.72 xGDAL 3.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:18 | 3:18 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:04 | 3:53 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:44 | 4:00 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 1:33 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:58 | 2:34 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:25 | 2:17 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:42 | 1:40 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:08 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:11 | 2:44 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:21 | 3:23 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 20:16 | 0:59 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:01 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:08 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:07 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | 16:00 | |
| A. Forsberg | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 42:40 | Loss |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:34 | 3:25 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:59 | 2:27 |
| M. Duchene | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:13 | 1:27 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 9:39 | 0:03 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 2:30 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 2:30 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 1:27 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 1:27 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 20:48 | 1:14 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 26:43 | 2:43 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:07 | 0:32 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 59:42 | Win |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1A. Kempe12:20A. Kuzmenko12:40A. Kopitar13:37
Line 2A. Laferriere14:40W. Foegele13:13J. Armia11:40
Line 3T. Moore13:11K. Fiala12:24A. Turcotte10:27
Line 4J. Malott10:26S. Helenius10:51C. Perry11:48
Pair 1B. Clarke19:17J. Edmundson16:41
Pair 2D. Doughty17:41M. Anderson17:02
Pair 3B. Dumoulin13:44C. Ceci13:53
DAL
Line 1R. Hintz13:45J. Robertson15:33J. Benn13:03
Line 2W. Johnston14:06M. Rantanen14:40M. Duchene12:34
Line 3C. Blackwell11:44R. Faksa9:45O. Bäck8:59
Line 4M. Bourque9:58J. Hryckowian10:20S. Steel12:54
Pair 1E. Lindell19:12M. Heiskanen19:32
Pair 2A. Petrovic16:43T. Harley17:04
Pair 3N. Lundkvist13:33I. Lyubushkin12:10
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.7, DAL 2.7 | LAK 1, DAL 4 |
| Total goals | 5.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 27.6, DAL 25.0 | LAK 28, DAL 26 |
| Win chance | DAL 51% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.1 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.9 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.8 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.4 | 3 | 1.00 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.3 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.0 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.1 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 0.9 | 4 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.7 | 2 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.