FLA beat LAK 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.85 expected goals to 1.72. FLA outshot LAK 39 to 29. M. Tkachuk led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Bennett had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. S. Bobrovsky stopped 29 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FLA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 4:55FLAS. Bennett0.07 xG
- 3rd 4:43FLAA. BarkovPP0.43 xG
- 3rd 18:48FLAM. TkachukEN0.47 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 1.72 xGFLA 3.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 2:09 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:49 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:50 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:07 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:51 | 1:52 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:45 | 0:47 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:44 | 2:12 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:10 | 2:10 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:00 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:51 | 2:08 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:46 | 0:51 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 38 | 36 | 2 | .947 | 58:19 | Loss |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:11 | 4:36 |
| A. Barkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 4:36 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 4:34 |
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:20 | 2:07 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:01 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 4:42 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 | 2:14 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 2:03 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 2:08 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:44 | 4:40 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:02 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:03 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:53 | 0:08 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:59 | 2:16 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 29 | 29 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.5, FLA 2.8 | LAK 0, FLA 3 |
| Total goals | 5.4 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 25.5, FLA 29.1 | LAK 29, FLA 39 |
| Win chance | FLA 56% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.9 | 2 | 1.01 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.9 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.8 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.6 | 8 | 0.57 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.4 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.4 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.2 | 5 | 0.92 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.0 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.9 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 1.9 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.7 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.7 | 6 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.6 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.5 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK A. Thomas | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.