Game Recap: LAK 1, NJD 3, December 12, 2024

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Game Recap

LAK1

FinalThu, Dec 12, 2024Every game that night

NJD3

NJD beat LAK 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.62 expected goals to 2.20. NJD outshot LAK 26 to 14. J. Hughes led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Markstrom stopped 13 of 14.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	0	1	0	1
NJD	0	1	2	3

2nd 16:41LAKJ. Spence0.04 xG
2nd 18:56NJDO. Palat0.08 xG
3rd 12:58NJDJ. Hughes0.15 xG
3rd 17:17NJDB. PesceSH0.09 xG

Team Stats

LAKNJD

14Shots on goal26

2.20Expected goals1.62

45Shot attempts56

95v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play0/1

18Hits27

20Blocked shots16

2Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways15

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 2.20 xGNJD 1.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK13 on goal, 1 scored

NJD24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	19:06	0:56
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	17:42	0:56
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	23:00	2:00
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	20:50	1:04
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	20:32	1:10
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	17:58	0:52
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	17:06	1:04
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:52	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:58	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:06	0:50
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	9:34	0:00
J. Spence	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	15:07	0:56
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:45	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	21:29	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:51	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:32	1:04
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:54	0:00
K. Burroughs	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	26	23	3	.885	57:12	Loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	1	2	3	2	0	1	+2	0	19:41	1:23
O. Palat	LW	1	1	2	1	0	2	+2	0	16:23	0:35
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	19:36	1:21
N. Hischier	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	21:05	1:20
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:33	0:39
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	16:40	1:22
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:39	0:40
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	2	15:33	0:37
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	14:48	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:19	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:00	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5:31	0:00
B. Pesce	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	20:19	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	0	17:10	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	22:28	0:03
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	21:36	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	19:02	1:02
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+2	0	17:37	0:58

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	14	13	1	.929	60:00	Win
I. Poulter	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamErik Haula LAK Faces NJD, his team until Apr 20252 SOG
HometownAlex Laferriere LAK Plays near home (born in Chatham)1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.9, NJD 3.0	LAK 1, NJD 3
Total goals	5.9	4
Shots on goal	LAK 26.9, NJD 27.6	LAK 14, NJD 26
Win chance	NJD 51%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.6	2	1.09	3	36%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	0	0.89	0	35%	0
NJD T. Meier	2.8	2	0.66	0	30%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.6	2	0.82	0	29%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.5	2	0.87	0	30%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.5	0	0.94	1	29%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	1	0.61	0	13%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	1	0.49	0	21%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	0	0.58	0	23%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.0	4	0.61	0	25%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	1.9	1	0.48	1	22%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.7	1	0.39	0	6%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.7	1	0.53	0	17%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.7	1	0.53	1	20%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.5	2	0.37	0	16%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.5	2	0.46	0	22%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	3	0.84	0	25%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.4	1	0.45	0	7%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.4	3	0.22	1	5%	1
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.35	0	7%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.3	1	0.30	0	6%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.2	0	0.33	0	15%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.2	1	0.39	2	16%	1
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.23	0	6%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.1	1	0.28	1	4%	1
LAK T. Jeannot	1.0	0	0.24	0	13%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.9	2	0.26	0	9%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	0.8	3	0.24	0	5%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.8	2	0.18	0	3%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	1	0.23	1	4%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.7	0	0.18	0	10%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	0	0.17	0	7%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.5	0	0.06	0	2%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.5	0	0.07	0	2%	0
NJD K. MacDermid	0.3	0	0.06	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.