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Game Recap
LAK4
NJD6
NJD beat LAK 6-4, with the chances close: 3.27 expected goals to 3.49. N. Hischier led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). S. Helenius had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.6. J. Allen stopped 27 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| NJD | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
- 1st 7:58NJDC. Glass0.10 xG
- 1st 11:04NJDN. Hischier0.23 xG
- 2nd 4:15LAKA. KopitarPP0.53 xG
- 2nd 6:03LAKA. Panarin0.11 xG
- 2nd 11:43LAKT. Ward0.04 xG
- 3rd 0:25NJDA. Gritsyuk0.11 xG
- 3rd 12:42NJDN. HischierPP0.37 xG
- 3rd 13:42LAKA. KopitarPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 17:31NJDJ. HughesPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 19:52NJDT. MeierEN0.49 xG
Team Stats
LAKNJD
31Shots on goal28
3.49Expected goals3.27
68Shot attempts58
275v5 shots on goal22
2/3Power play2/3
22Hits16
13Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways17
2Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 3.49 xGNJD 3.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:20 | 3:21 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:37 | 2:28 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:24 | 2:29 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| T. Ward | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:20 | 2:31 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:34 | 0:53 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:52 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:50 |
| J. Wright | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 20:19 | 2:32 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 23:15 | 0:49 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:35 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 27 | 22 | 5 | .815 | 57:46 | Loss |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:26 | 1:51 |
| T. Meier | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 1:20 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:57 |
| J. Hughes | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 2:14 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 1:23 |
| C. Glass | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:47 | 2:10 |
| L. Hameenaho | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 1:01 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:37 | 1:23 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:09 | 1:48 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:48 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Allen | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Markstrom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1A. Kopitar14:21A. Panarin14:45A. Kempe13:38
Line 2Q. Byfield14:42A. Laferriere14:17T. Moore14:08
Line 3S. Laughton12:48J. Wright13:07M. Joseph11:42
Line 4S. Helenius10:24T. Ward9:44J. Malott9:42
Pair 1D. Doughty20:34M. Anderson19:21
Pair 2J. Edmundson17:26B. Clarke16:51
Pair 3B. Dumoulin14:33C. Ceci14:07
NJD
Line 1T. Meier16:00D. Mercer14:13N. Hischier15:09
Line 2A. Gritsyuk14:11C. Glass12:57L. Hameenaho11:40
Line 4N. Bjugstad9:16M. Tsyplakov10:08P. Cotter9:26
Pair 1L. Hughes20:21J. Kovacevic17:32
Pair 3D. Hamilton17:29J. Siegenthaler18:08
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.7, NJD 3.1 | LAK 4, NJD 6 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 25.2, NJD 30.3 | LAK 31, NJD 28 |
| Win chance | NJD 58% | NJD won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.6 | 2 | 1.12 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.3 | 2 | 0.61 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.8 | 1 | 0.60 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK A. Panarin | 2.8 | 2 | 1.06 | 3 | 32% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.7 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.6 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.6 | 4 | 0.86 | 4 | 31% | 2 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.3 | 0 | 0.91 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.2 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 2.1 | 5 | 0.44 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.0 | 1 | 0.48 | 3 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.8 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.7 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hameenaho | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 5 | 0.70 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| NJD N. Bjugstad | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK S. Laughton | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| LAK J. Wright | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD M. Tsyplakov | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK M. Joseph | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 5 | 0.17 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.