Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
LAK1
FinalSat, Oct 24, 2026Every game that night
NJD3

NJD beat LAK 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.71 expected goals to 1.13. NJD outshot LAK 26 to 13. A. Gritsyuk led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Doughty had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Allen stopped 12 of 13.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
LAK0101
NJD0123
  1. 2nd 15:57LAKS. Laughton0.16 xG
  2. 2nd 18:43NJDA. Mantha0.06 xG
  3. 3rd 8:08NJDB. Pesce0.09 xG
  4. 3rd 18:55NJDA. GritsyukEN0.81 xG

Team Stats

LAKNJD
13Shots on goal26
1.13Expected goals3.71
37Shot attempts58
135v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play0/2
22Hits21
14Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways20
4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 1.13 xGNJD 3.71 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdLAK goal, 15:57NJD goal, 18:43NJD goal, 8:08NJD goal, 18:55

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK13 on goal, 1 scored
NJD25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. KempeRW011010-1020:412:00
S. LaughtonC101121+1214:260:00
A. LeeLW0110200013:281:51
A. PanarinLW000310-2023:062:48
A. LaferriereRW000011-1021:322:31
E. HaulaLW000111-1016:111:33
T. MooreLW0001200015:430:10
J. ArmiaRW0001010014:100:00
M. ZuccarelloRW0000000013:202:28
C. PerryRW000010-2010:411:28
S. HeleniusC000040-209:510:00
J. WrightRW000111007:570:00
D. DoughtyD000411-1023:271:11
E. GustafssonD0000010021:271:49
B. ClarkeD000114-1020:022:11
J. EdmundsonD000011-1018:550:00
M. AndersonD0000220017:040:00
B. DumoulinD0000100215:300:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Forsberg25232.92058:29Loss
D. Kuemper000–0:00

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. GritsyukRW112110+2015:200:52
J. HughesC011200+1019:183:08
J. BrattLW011010+1017:203:01
L. EvangelistaRW011420+1016:262:56
E. RodriguesC0110200014:381:04
A. ManthaRW1011020012:200:54
J. BoqvistC011010+1010:510:00
N. HischierC000411+1016:162:53
T. MeierRW000312-1215:491:07
C. BrownRW0002000015:090:00
C. GlassC0002120013:550:00
A. LombardiC0002000012:190:00
B. PesceD101131+1221:310:00
L. HughesD0002010025:253:14
J. SiegenthalerD000010+1019:100:05
D. HamiltonD000212+1018:590:46
J. KovacevicD0000210016:230:00
B. DillonD000041+1014:510:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Allen13121.92360:00Win
R. Poirier000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kempe17:10A. Panarin18:47A. Laferriere16:05
Line 2J. Armia12:47S. Laughton13:24T. Moore13:15
Line 3E. Haula12:29M. Zuccarello10:52A. Lee10:24
Line 4C. Perry8:36S. Helenius9:51J. Wright7:57
Pair 1D. Doughty18:55E. Gustafsson18:44
Pair 2J. Edmundson16:37B. Clarke16:41
Pair 3B. Dumoulin14:29M. Anderson15:22

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes15:28J. Bratt13:34A. Gritsyuk13:42
Line 2N. Hischier12:01L. Evangelista13:11T. Meier13:40
Line 3C. Brown11:59A. Lombardi12:19C. Glass11:20
Line 4A. Mantha11:26E. Rodrigues11:47J. Boqvist10:51
Pair 1B. Pesce19:56L. Hughes19:44
Pair 2D. Hamilton15:51J. Siegenthaler16:26
Pair 3B. Dillon14:24J. Kovacevic14:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 17 overs hit (29%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NJD J. Hughes3.5-110-1152Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.5+150-1701Under
LAK A. Kempe2.5-130+1150Under
LAK A. Laferriere2.5-120-1050Under
LAK A. Panarin2.5-105-1103Over
NJD D. Hamilton2.5+130-1602Under
NJD L. Evangelista2.5+136-1784Over
NJD L. Hughes2.5+130-1462Under
NJD N. Hischier2.5+125-1504Over
NJD T. Meier2.5-156+1353Over
LAK B. Clarke1.5-110-1101Under
NJD C. Brown1.5-115-1252Over
LAK E. Haula1.5+105-1301Under
NJD E. Rodrigues1.5-146+1200Under
NJD J. Bratt1.5-175+1400Under
LAK M. Zuccarello1.5+100-1250Under
LAK T. Moore1.5-140+1151Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamErik Haula LAK Faces NJD, his team until Apr 20251 SOG
  • HometownAlex Laferriere LAK Plays near home (born in Chatham)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreLAK 2.7, NJD 3.1LAK 1, NJD 3
Total goals5.94
Shots on goalLAK 25.6, NJD 31.0LAK 13, NJD 26
Win chanceNJD 57%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.421.12133%0
NJD T. Meier3.030.56025%0
LAK A. Kempe2.700.92135%0
LAK A. Panarin2.731.12035%0
LAK A. Laferriere2.600.67025%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.420.53013%0
NJD L. Hughes2.320.61012%0
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.210.49219%1
NJD L. Evangelista2.240.65118%0
NJD N. Hischier2.140.74027%0
NJD J. Bratt2.000.84123%0
LAK T. Moore2.010.46019%0
NJD E. Rodrigues1.900.46116%0
LAK B. Clarke1.810.5209%0
LAK M. Zuccarello1.700.71020%0
NJD C. Brown1.620.54018%0
NJD A. Lombardi1.520.2909%0
LAK E. Haula1.510.41017%0
LAK S. Laughton1.510.32115%1
NJD A. Mantha1.410.52120%1
NJD C. Glass1.320.32015%0
NJD B. Pesce1.310.2816%1
LAK A. Lee1.200.24111%0
LAK J. Wright1.210.1407%0
LAK J. Armia1.210.30014%0
LAK E. Gustafsson1.100.3405%0
LAK C. Perry1.100.31015%0
LAK J. Edmundson1.100.2004%0
LAK D. Doughty1.140.3809%0
NJD J. Boqvist1.100.27112%0
NJD J. Kovacevic0.800.1903%0
LAK S. Helenius0.800.1507%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.700.2203%0
LAK M. Anderson0.700.2204%0
LAK B. Dumoulin0.700.2004%0
NJD B. Dillon0.600.1704%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.