Game Recap: LAK 1, OTT 0, November 15, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK1

FinalSat, Nov 15, 2025Every game that night

OTT0

LAK beat OTT 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 1.15 expected goals to 2.15. C. Giroux had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. A. Forsberg stopped 17 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	1	0	0	1
OTT	0	0	0	0

1st 9:19LAKA. Laferriere0.06 xG

Team Stats

LAKOTT

18Shots on goal17

1.15Expected goals2.15

40Shot attempts57

135v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play0/2

16Hits22

20Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways13

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 1.15 xGOTT 2.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK18 on goal, 1 scored

OTT17 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	19:36	2:16
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:49	1:56
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:21	2:20
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	17:23	2:21
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:02	1:39
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:44	2:05
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	2	16:18	1:32
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	16:04	1:22
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:32	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:16	2:13
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:52	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	7:33	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	20:47	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	21:33	0:25
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	20:36	0:04
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	20:03	1:46
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:48	0:01
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	11:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	17	17	0	1.000	59:59	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	2	1	0	0	20:41	2:12
D. Cozens	C	0	1	2	0	2	18:47	2:12
C. Giroux	RW	5	1	0	-1	0	18:44	2:09
D. Batherson	RW	0	3	0	0	0	18:36	2:12
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	-1	0	17:04	1:29
R. Greig	C	1	1	0	0	0	16:02	1:44
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	0	0	0	15:45	1:48
M. Amadio	RW	1	5	1	-1	0	14:05	0:00
D. Perron	LW	1	0	1	0	0	12:57	1:29
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	11:53	0:05
N. Cousins	C	0	1	0	0	0	9:42	0:17
H. Hodgson	RW	0	6	0	0	0	8:34	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	2	0	2	-1	0	25:44	2:24
J. Spence	D	2	1	1	0	2	21:50	1:53
A. Zub	D	1	1	1	-1	2	17:37	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	2	0	0	17:26	0:06
N. Jensen	D	1	0	0	0	0	17:20	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	1	0	0	15:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	18	17	1	.944	57:39	Loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar14:28A. Kempe14:34J. Armia13:35

Line 2P. Danault14:04T. Moore13:03W. Foegele12:54

Line 3K. Fiala15:07Q. Byfield13:43A. Laferriere13:01

Line 4C. Perry8:51A. Turcotte7:52J. Malott7:33

Pair 1B. Clarke18:16J. Edmundson17:39

Pair 2B. Dumoulin17:58C. Ceci16:53

Pair 3D. Doughty11:11M. Anderson17:28

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson14:40T. Stützle15:32D. Perron10:51

Line 2D. Cozens14:24F. Zetterlund13:55R. Greig11:24

Line 3M. Amadio13:36S. Pinto11:19C. Giroux13:33

Line 4L. Eller11:22N. Cousins9:24H. Hodgson8:34

Pair 1J. Sanderson19:24A. Zub16:10

Pair 2N. Jensen15:22N. Matinpalo13:52

Pair 3T. Kleven15:55J. Spence18:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnton Forsberg LAK Faces OTT, his team until May 202517 saves on 17, the win
Old teamJordan Spence OTT Faces LAK, his team until May 20252 SOG
HometownBrandt Clarke LAK Plays near home (born in Nepean)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 3.1, OTT 2.9	LAK 1, OTT 0
Total goals	6.0	1
Shots on goal	LAK 27.2, OTT 27.0	LAK 18, OTT 17
Win chance	LAK 53%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.1	1	0.86	0	33%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	4	0.91	0	34%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.3	1	0.50	1	20%	1
LAK Q. Byfield	2.2	1	0.76	1	24%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	2	0.52	0	9%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	0	0.73	0	24%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	1	0.63	0	26%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	1	0.84	0	26%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.0	0	0.57	0	21%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.0	3	0.48	0	21%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.9	0	0.55	0	25%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.7	1	0.35	0	15%	0
LAK W. Foegele	1.7	2	0.37	0	17%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	1	0.42	0	8%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	5	0.61	0	20%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.5	1	0.51	0	21%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	1	0.43	0	16%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.4	0	0.51	0	16%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	2	0.76	0	23%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	1	0.41	0	19%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.2	1	0.47	0	10%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.2	0	0.16	0	4%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.1	2	0.33	0	4%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.1	1	0.33	0	14%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.1	0	0.28	0	11%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	1	0.28	0	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	0.9	0	0.21	0	4%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	0	0.13	0	3%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.9	0	0.23	0	8%	0
OTT H. Hodgson	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	1	0.22	0	4%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.8	0	0.12	0	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.8	1	0.19	0	3%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.8	0	0.21	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	0	0.23	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.