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Game Recap
LAK3
PHI2
LAK beat PHI 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.87 expected goals to 2.58. A. Kempe led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Brink had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Kuemper stopped 19 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 3:10LAKA. Kempe0.03 xG
- 1st 7:08LAKA. Kempe0.08 xG
- 2nd 0:39PHIT. ZegrasPP0.14 xG
- 3rd 0:25PHIT. Konecny0.05 xG
- OT 2:48LAKQ. Byfield0.11 xG
Team Stats
LAKPHI
21Shots on goal21
1.87Expected goals2.58
57Shot attempts49
175v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play1/2
25Hits29
11Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes2
7Giveaways18
2Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 1.87 xGPHI 2.58 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:36 | 2:26 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:34 | 2:25 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:19 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:35 | 1:24 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:14 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 2:20 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:46 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:14 |
| T. Ward | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 1:21 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 2:14 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:01 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 23:25 | 1:34 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:04 | 2:37 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:03 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 0:02 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:21 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 62:48 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:59 | 2:36 |
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:44 | 2:39 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:41 | 2:41 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 0:00 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:12 | 2:37 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:51 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:50 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:46 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:48 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:02 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:16 | 2:51 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:50 | 0:36 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Vladar | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 62:48 | OT loss |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1C. Perry15:09A. Kempe14:53A. Laferriere14:32
Line 2J. Armia13:55T. Moore13:49A. Kopitar13:39
Line 3K. Fiala13:06Q. Byfield14:23T. Ward11:42
Line 4S. Helenius11:06J. Malott11:20A. Kuzmenko9:55
Pair 1B. Clarke19:17J. Edmundson17:54
Pair 2D. Doughty19:22M. Anderson17:15
Pair 3C. Ceci15:54B. Dumoulin15:34
PHI
Line 1T. Konecny18:38C. Dvorak17:16N. Grebenkin13:07
Line 2T. Zegras14:43B. Brink12:57M. Michkov9:33
Line 3O. Tippett12:39N. Cates12:13D. Barkey12:31
Line 4N. Deslauriers9:27S. Couturier15:55G. Hathaway8:24
Pair 1J. Drysdale20:06C. York19:39
Pair 2R. Ristolainen21:00T. Sanheim20:55
Pair 3N. Seeler12:15N. Juulsen11:27
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.1, PHI 2.9 | LAK 3, PHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 25.2, PHI 26.9 | LAK 21, PHI 21 |
| Win chance | LAK 53% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.5 | 0 | 0.85 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.5 | 3 | 0.91 | 3 | 34% | 2 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.5 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.2 | 3 | 0.84 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 2.0 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.0 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| LAK T. Moore | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.7 | 2 | 0.60 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.4 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.1 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.