PIT beat LAK 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.74 expected goals to 2.94. R. Rakell led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Moverare had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.6. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| PIT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 0:33LAKA. Kempe0.22 xG
- 2nd 6:22PITE. Malkin0.13 xG
- 2nd 11:38LAKA. Turcotte0.12 xG
- 3rd 14:25PITM. Grzelcyk0.12 xG
- OT 1:44PITR. Rakell0.14 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.94 xGPIT 2.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:36 | 3:24 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:45 | 3:19 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:33 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:12 | 4:40 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:28 | 1:37 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:57 | 3:06 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:42 | 1:32 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:20 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:37 | 0:16 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:13 | 1:01 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:19 | 0:16 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:14 | 3:56 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| K. Burroughs | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 61:28 | OT loss |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:44 | 2:23 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:56 | 2:53 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:03 | 2:49 |
| E. Malkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:30 | 2:27 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:13 | 1:51 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:10 | 2:04 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:08 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:11 | 1:29 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:06 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:11 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 27:02 | 2:58 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:13 | 1:52 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:49 | 2:43 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:34 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:12 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 61:34 | Win |
| T. Jarry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.1, PIT 2.8 | LAK 2, PIT 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 29.5, PIT 27.9 | LAK 31, PIT 31 |
| Win chance | LAK 54% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.0 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.8 | 6 | 0.94 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 6 | 0.93 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.6 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.5 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.3 | 2 | 0.62 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.0 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.9 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.8 | 4 | 0.53 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.8 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Thomas | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 5 | 0.31 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.6 | 5 | 0.07 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.5 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK K. Burroughs | 0.4 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.