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Game Recap
LAK2
SEA4
SEA beat LAK 4-2, with the chances close: 2.94 expected goals to 2.32. LAK outshot SEA 30 to 22. J. Schwartz scored three for SEA. K. Fiala had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Daccord stopped 28 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| SEA | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 0:28SEAJ. Schwartz0.06 xG
- 1st 6:07LAKA. KempePP0.14 xG
- 1st 7:40SEAJ. Schwartz0.11 xG
- 1st 18:43LAKJ. Spence0.02 xG
- 2nd 1:37SEAC. Stephenson0.09 xG
- 3rd 18:50SEAJ. SchwartzEN0.75 xG
Team Stats
LAKSEA
30Shots on goal22
2.32Expected goals2.94
76Shot attempts50
235v5 shots on goal15
1/2Power play0/3
26Hits32
14Blocked shots24
6Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways15
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.32 xGSEA 2.94 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:18 | 2:11 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:36 | 1:43 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:20 | 1:45 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:39 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:26 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:50 | 1:32 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:28 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:49 | 1:20 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:54 | 0:51 |
| K. Burroughs | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:32 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 57:53 | Loss |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Schwartz | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:14 | 3:52 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:27 | 2:27 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:44 | 3:18 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 20:19 | 3:23 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:06 | 3:24 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:13 | 2:37 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 2:41 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 | 1:51 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:08 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:58 | 0:08 |
| J. Hayden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 21:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:42 | 2:43 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:11 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:38 | 3:17 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.9, SEA 2.6 | LAK 2, SEA 4 |
| Total goals | 5.4 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 26.9, SEA 25.0 | LAK 30, SEA 22 |
| Win chance | LAK 54% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.9 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.7 | 10 | 0.84 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.2 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.1 | 6 | 0.56 | 3 | 23% | 3 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.1 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.8 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.7 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 3 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 0.8 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK K. Burroughs | 0.2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.