Game Recap: LAK 1, STL 4, March 1, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK1

FinalSat, Mar 1, 2025Every game that night

STL4

STL beat LAK 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.94 expected goals to 1.87. STL outshot LAK 34 to 26. D. Holloway led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Kyrou had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Binnington stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	1	0	0	1
STL	2	1	1	4

1st 3:43LAKK. FialaPP0.10 xG
1st 9:37STLC. Parayko0.05 xG
1st 18:07STLP. Buchnevich0.08 xG
2nd 9:27STLZ. Bolduc0.13 xG
3rd 1:34STLD. Holloway0.03 xG

Team Stats

LAKSTL

26Shots on goal34

1.87Expected goals2.94

63Shot attempts55

215v5 shots on goal27

1/1Power play0/2

25Hits34

10Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways16

1Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 1.87 xGSTL 2.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK26 on goal, 1 scored

STL33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-2	0	17:39	0:52
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	-1	0	17:13	0:52
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	18:23	0:52
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	17:38	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	17:01	0:00
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:44	0:00
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:39	0:52
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:00	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11:43	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	11:38	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	10:38	0:00
A. Thomas	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	9:43	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	24:58	0:52
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	24:01	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	21:20	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	21:17	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	13:36	0:00
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	2	11:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	34	30	4	.882	57:51	Loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Holloway	LW	1	1	2	5	0	1	+2	0	17:58	1:59
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	17:15	2:04
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	7	6	1	+2	2	16:35	1:56
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	16:33	2:01
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	1	3	2	+1	0	15:35	1:41
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	15:23	1:53
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	15:10	2:27
M. Joseph	RW	0	1	1	1	3	2	+1	0	12:56	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	15:26	1:27
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	12:45	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	12:30	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	2	12:27	0:03
C. Parayko	D	1	0	1	3	1	3	+1	0	19:46	0:29
R. Suter	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	0	18:29	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:12	1:50
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	20:04	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	19:06	2:10
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+3	0	17:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.6, STL 2.8	LAK 1, STL 4
Total goals	5.5	5
Shots on goal	LAK 26.4, STL 25.7	LAK 26, STL 34
Win chance	STL 54%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.1	3	0.83	1	31%	1
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	2	0.82	0	34%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.4	2	0.48	0	21%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	2	0.50	0	21%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.4	7	0.72	1	30%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	0	0.52	0	22%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.1	5	0.59	2	22%	1
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	0	0.63	0	19%	0
STL R. Thomas	2.0	1	0.91	1	25%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	4	0.77	1	26%	1
LAK P. Danault	1.7	2	0.52	0	18%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	0	0.59	1	20%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.6	2	0.44	0	7%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.6	0	0.45	1	23%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.5	3	0.37	1	10%	1
LAK D. Doughty	1.5	3	0.51	1	12%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.4	1	0.39	1	16%	1
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	3	0.68	1	21%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.29	0	6%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	1	0.34	0	8%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	3	0.43	0	8%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.1	1	0.23	0	6%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	1	0.28	1	10%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.0	2	0.16	0	8%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.0	3	0.25	0	9%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.0	0	0.27	0	4%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	2	0.33	0	12%	0
STL R. Faksa	0.9	2	0.24	0	10%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	1	0.26	0	13%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.9	0	0.26	0	3%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.8	1	0.19	0	10%	0
LAK A. Thomas	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
STL R. Suter	0.7	1	0.21	1	3%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.6	0	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.