Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
LAK5
STL4
LAK beat STL 5-4 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.96 expected goals to 3.49. J. Kyrou led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Moore had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. D. Kuemper stopped 25 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| STL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 4:31LAKT. Ward0.11 xG
- 2nd 1:11LAKB. Dumoulin0.03 xG
- 2nd 2:14STLD. Dvorsky0.18 xG
- 2nd 6:30STLB. SchennPP0.28 xG
- 2nd 8:10STLJ. Kyrou0.03 xG
- 2nd 10:18LAKA. Laferriere0.09 xG
- 3rd 11:34LAKT. Moore0.27 xG
- 3rd 17:50STLJ. Kyrou0.27 xG
Team Stats
LAKSTL
28Shots on goal29
2.96Expected goals3.49
64Shot attempts59
225v5 shots on goal21
0/3Power play1/3
17Hits20
14Blocked shots20
13Penalty minutes11
17Giveaways12
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 2.96 xGSTL 3.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:11 | 1:26 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:16 | 2:29 |
| T. Moore | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:14 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 3:05 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| T. Ward | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:48 | 1:13 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 7:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:06 | 0:00 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:24 | 1:08 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:54 | 2:52 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 2:45 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:02 | 1:21 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 4 | 21:50 | 2:48 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 1:08 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:34 | 2:08 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 29 | 25 | 4 | .862 | 65:00 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kyrou | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:41 | 2:34 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:15 | 2:50 |
| B. Schenn | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:43 | 1:08 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:05 | 1:11 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:52 | 2:52 |
| O. Stenberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:59 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 | 1:01 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:30 | 1:42 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:01 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 5 | 9:26 | 0:04 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:56 | 0:03 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:48 | 2:44 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 | 0:57 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:41 | 1:04 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 23:03 | 0:05 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 64:44 | OT loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
LAK
Line 1T. Moore16:24Q. Byfield16:37J. Armia14:00
Line 2C. Perry13:39A. Kempe15:19A. Laferriere13:52
Line 3K. Fiala13:16A. Turcotte12:03A. Kuzmenko11:27
Line 4S. Helenius7:16J. Malott7:06T. Ward8:35
Pair 1D. Doughty19:42M. Anderson20:04
Pair 2B. Dumoulin15:42C. Ceci16:25
Pair 3B. Clarke15:38J. Edmundson12:20
STL
Line 1J. Berggren16:02J. Snuggerud14:43B. Schenn16:21
Line 2J. Kyrou15:15J. Neighbours14:30P. Buchnevich14:17
Line 3D. Dvorsky13:02O. Stenberg12:15M. Joseph10:35
Line 4N. Walker7:41A. Toropchenko7:41N. Bjugstad7:10
Pair 1P. Broberg19:53C. Parayko20:01
Pair 2L. Mailloux15:32C. Fowler15:21
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 3.1, STL 2.7 | LAK 5, STL 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 26.9, STL 24.5 | LAK 28, STL 29 |
| Win chance | LAK 56% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.9 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.7 | 2 | 0.89 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.6 | 4 | 0.56 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.4 | 4 | 0.63 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 2.1 | 4 | 0.57 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.1 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.7 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 1.7 | 5 | 0.44 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.7 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL O. Stenberg | 1.0 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.