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Game Recap
LAK0
TBL3
TBL beat LAK 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.46 expected goals to 1.88. B. Hagel led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Hagel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TBL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 4:45TBLB. Hagel0.14 xG
- 3rd 15:39TBLB. Hagel0.37 xG
- 3rd 18:43TBLA. CirelliEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
LAKTBL
28Shots on goal33
1.88Expected goals4.46
55Shot attempts62
255v5 shots on goal30
0/1Power play0/2
29Hits18
18Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes2
9Giveaways15
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
LAK 1.88 xGTBL 4.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 18:19 | 1:40 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:17 | 1:40 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:36 | 1:40 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:40 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:53 | 1:40 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:20 |
| T. Lewis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:20 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:20 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 27:43 | 1:40 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 27:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:20 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:37 | 0:20 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 58:20 | Loss |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:15 | 1:15 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:22 | 3:43 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:24 | 1:16 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:00 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 2:46 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:10 | 2:45 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:58 | 1:14 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 2:42 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:40 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:22 | 2:06 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:46 | 1:54 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:17 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:05 | 0:02 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:00 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 28 | 28 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Tomkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAK 2.5, TBL 3.2 | LAK 0, TBL 3 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | LAK 26.1, TBL 28.2 | LAK 28, TBL 33 |
| Win chance | TBL 61% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.5 | 3 | 1.66 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.0 | 4 | 0.82 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.8 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.5 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.5 | 2 | 1.04 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.5 | 7 | 0.90 | 3 | 30% | 2 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.2 | 6 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.2 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.1 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.0 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.9 | 4 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.6 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 5 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.0 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK T. Lewis | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Thomas | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.6 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.