Game Recap: LAK 2, TBL 1, December 18, 2025

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Game Recap

LAK2

FinalThu, Dec 18, 2025Every game that night

TBL1

LAK beat TBL 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.50 expected goals to 3.26. TBL outshot LAK 32 to 20. A. Kempe led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). O. Bjorkstrand had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. A. Forsberg stopped 31 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
LAK	0	2	0	2
TBL	1	0	0	1

1st 12:54TBLO. BjorkstrandPP0.36 xG
2nd 5:21LAKA. Kempe0.03 xG
2nd 15:58LAKA. Kempe0.26 xG

Team Stats

LAKTBL

20Shots on goal32

1.50Expected goals3.26

32Shot attempts77

165v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play1/5

17Hits18

22Blocked shots7

20Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways9

11Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 1.50 xGTBL 3.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK19 on goal, 2 scored

TBL32 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	2	0	2	2	1	1	+2	4	15:41	1:02
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	19:06	1:02
C. Perry	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	12	12:42	0:00
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	19:12	0:00
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	16:45	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:27	0:00
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:54	1:02
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	15:01	0:00
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:20	1:02
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:58	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	10:57	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	6:20	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	24:19	1:02
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	2	22:45	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	19:15	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	18:40	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:32	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	15:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	32	31	1	.969	60:00	Win
P. Copley	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	26:45	6:14
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	20:54	6:08
A. Cirelli	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:40	2:57
B. Point	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	22:04	6:03
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:31	2:31
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	17:26	4:03
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	17:22	0:58
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	15:37	0:00
D. James	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:58	1:30
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	-2	0	13:57	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:59	0:00
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:00	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	26:01	6:13
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	22:00	0:01
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-2	0	21:33	1:07
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:49	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:31	0:00
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	20	18	2	.900	57:08	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1Q. Byfield14:17K. Fiala14:52W. Foegele13:02

Line 2A. Kopitar14:29A. Kempe14:14A. Laferriere13:17

Line 3T. Moore12:30A. Kuzmenko11:18A. Turcotte10:55

Line 4C. Perry11:36J. Armia9:34S. Helenius6:20

Pair 1D. Doughty20:01M. Anderson19:29

Pair 2C. Ceci15:10B. Dumoulin15:23

Pair 3B. Clarke14:50J. Edmundson13:08

TBL

Line 1Y. Gourde14:47P. Holmberg15:12Z. Girgensons13:32

Line 2O. Bjorkstrand13:24B. Point14:39G. Goncalves13:23

Line 3J. Guentzel17:42A. Cirelli11:41N. Paul12:54

Line 4D. James12:28C. Douglas6:59

Pair 1D. Raddysh17:56J. Moser19:37

Pair 2R. McDonagh16:50C. D'Astous18:05

Pair 3M. Crozier13:31D. Carlile11:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCorey Perry LAK First game back in Tampa, his team until May 20261 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	LAK 2.5, TBL 3.1	LAK 2, TBL 1
Total goals	5.6	3
Shots on goal	LAK 25.5, TBL 28.0	LAK 20, TBL 32
Win chance	TBL 62%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	2.8	0	0.68	0	28%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.7	4	0.98	1	36%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	2	0.74	2	30%	2
TBL B. Point	2.3	3	0.92	0	36%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.3	3	0.69	0	13%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.2	1	0.42	0	18%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.9	4	0.53	0	18%	0
LAK W. Foegele	1.9	1	0.34	0	17%	0
LAK T. Moore	1.8	3	0.39	0	17%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.8	5	0.58	1	21%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	1	0.55	1	22%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.8	2	0.36	0	9%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.7	1	0.42	0	19%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	2	0.46	0	15%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.5	2	0.35	1	18%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.5	0	0.20	0	4%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.5	0	0.46	0	12%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	0	0.66	1	21%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.4	1	0.32	0	8%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.3	1	0.35	0	15%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	4	0.20	0	12%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	2	0.29	0	6%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.2	1	0.44	0	19%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.2	1	0.29	0	12%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	1	0.21	0	5%	0
TBL D. James	1.1	2	0.27	0	12%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.0	1	0.21	0	8%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.9	0	0.17	0	6%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	0.9	1	0.29	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.18	0	3%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.9	0	0.17	0	3%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.7	0	0.12	0	5%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.7	2	0.25	0	9%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.4	0	0.10	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.