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Game Recap
LAK1
FinalSun, Dec 22, 2024Every game that night
WSH3

WSH beat LAK 3-1, with the chances close: 2.14 expected goals to 1.47. A. Protas led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Thompson stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
LAK0101
WSH1113
  1. 1st 10:20WSHA. Protas0.14 xG
  2. 2nd 4:10LAKK. FialaPP0.05 xG
  3. 2nd 14:18WSHJ. VranaPP0.05 xG
  4. 3rd 19:06WSHA. ProtasEN0.58 xG

Team Stats

LAKWSH
26Shots on goal21
1.47Expected goals2.14
53Shot attempts40
255v5 shots on goal18
1/1Power play1/1
16Hits21
13Blocked shots14
2Penalty minutes2
13Giveaways14
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 1.47 xGWSH 2.14 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdWSH goal, 10:20LAK goal, 4:10WSH goal, 14:18WSH goal, 19:06

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK26 on goal, 1 scored
WSH20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. KempeRW011100-2020:070:17
K. FialaLW101410-1218:080:17
Q. ByfieldRW000010-1022:370:17
A. LaferriereRW000420-1019:200:00
A. KopitarC000102-2018:420:17
W. FoegeleLW0000020017:560:00
S. HeleniusC0001510014:380:00
A. TurcotteC000201-1014:050:00
A. ThomasC0002100014:030:00
T. JeannotLW0000310012:080:00
A. LeeLW000100009:130:00
B. ClarkeD011300-2018:260:17
M. AndersonD0001030024:580:00
V. GavrikovD0001000023:020:00
J. EdmundsonD000212-1021:560:00
J. SpenceD0001000015:470:00
J. MoverareD000210008:360:00
K. BurroughsD000011005:570:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Rittich20182.90058:40Loss
D. Kuemper000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. ProtasLW202400+2017:500:00
P. DuboisC022121+2015:570:35
C. McMichaelLW011102+2018:411:23
J. VranaLW101100008:440:40
N. DowdC0000210018:260:00
D. StromeC0002000017:451:06
T. WilsonRW0001210017:191:01
B. DuhaimeLW0002000016:440:00
A. MangiapaneLW0000100016:120:37
T. RaddyshRW0000000014:300:18
I. MiroshnichenkoLW0001400010:080:00
H. LapierreC000022008:010:00
J. CarlsonD0002320022:051:04
M. FehérváryD000222+1020:430:00
M. RoyD000011+1020:420:00
J. ChychrunD000000+1020:381:31
R. SandinD0002200018:400:10
T. van RiemsdykD000202+1216:380:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson26251.96260:00Win
C. Lindgren000–0:00

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreLAK 2.7, WSH 3.1LAK 1, WSH 3
Total goals5.84
Shots on goalLAK 26.4, WSH 26.5LAK 26, WSH 21
Win chanceWSH 56%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
LAK A. Kempe2.710.84132%0
LAK K. Fiala2.640.81128%1
LAK W. Foegele2.400.52021%0
WSH C. McMichael2.310.59127%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.100.51014%0
WSH T. Wilson2.010.59026%0
LAK A. Laferriere2.040.50021%0
WSH J. Carlson2.020.60012%0
LAK Q. Byfield1.800.55017%0
WSH D. Strome1.820.87027%0
WSH A. Protas1.740.54216%2
WSH P. Dubois1.610.62223%0
LAK B. Clarke1.630.3217%0
LAK A. Kopitar1.410.80022%0
LAK V. Gavrikov1.410.3307%0
WSH M. Roy1.300.3006%0
WSH A. Mangiapane1.300.42018%0
WSH J. Vrana1.210.35118%1
WSH B. Duhaime1.220.22012%0
LAK M. Anderson1.210.2406%0
WSH T. Raddysh1.200.30013%0
LAK J. Edmundson1.120.1906%0
LAK A. Turcotte1.120.37012%0
WSH N. Dowd1.100.36019%0
LAK T. Jeannot1.100.27013%0
WSH I. Miroshnichenko1.010.26010%0
LAK J. Spence1.010.2504%0
WSH T. Riemsdyk1.020.2303%0
LAK A. Thomas1.020.27011%0
WSH R. Sandin0.920.3607%0
LAK A. Lee0.910.1707%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.820.2306%0
WSH H. Lapierre0.600.2709%0
LAK J. Moverare0.620.0702%0
LAK S. Helenius0.510.1406%0
LAK K. Burroughs0.400.0502%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.