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Game Recap
LAK5
FinalTue, Oct 20, 2026Every game that night
WSH2

LAK beat WSH 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.26 expected goals to 4.73. A. Panarin led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Kempe had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. D. Kuemper stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
LAK2035
WSH2002
  1. 1st 9:25WSHR. Leonard0.07 xG
  2. 1st 18:35WSHC. HutsonPP0.15 xG
  3. 1st 19:27LAKA. Kempe0.10 xG
  4. 1st 19:58LAKA. Panarin0.02 xG
  5. 3rd 7:28LAKE. GustafssonPP0.24 xG
  6. 3rd 11:35LAKA. Kempe0.17 xG
  7. 3rd 18:15LAKS. LaughtonEN0.49 xG

Team Stats

LAKWSH
26Shots on goal32
3.26Expected goals4.73
41Shot attempts69
215v5 shots on goal21
1/2Power play1/4
28Hits21
18Blocked shots8
10Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways20
7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

LAK 3.26 xGWSH 4.73 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdWSH goal, 9:25WSH goal, 18:35LAK goal, 19:27LAK goal, 19:58LAK goal, 7:28LAK goal, 11:35LAK goal, 18:15

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

LAK26 on goal, 5 scored
WSH32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. PanarinLW123300+3016:502:29
A. LaferriereRW022342+2220:372:31
A. KempeRW202620+3018:182:16
E. HaulaLW0111230016:490:53
S. LaughtonC101341+1215:250:00
J. ArmiaRW0112410013:360:00
T. MooreLW0000000018:421:08
M. ZuccarelloRW0003000015:552:25
C. PerryRW0000010212:390:55
A. LeeLW0001100012:090:00
S. HeleniusC0000620010:270:00
Q. ByfieldRW000000002:440:00
E. GustafssonD101210-1013:520:37
M. AndersonD000012+2022:110:13
B. DumoulinD000003+2021:300:00
D. DoughtyD000111+2221:180:59
J. EdmundsonD000020+2020:530:00
B. ClarkeD000102-1218:242:34
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Kuemper32302.93860:00Win
A. Forsberg000–0:00

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. LeonardRW1012200017:313:13
J. KyrouRW011201-2014:502:22
A. BeauvillierRW0111010012:590:07
J. BrodzinskiC0112000010:120:00
A. TuchRW000220-1018:592:39
D. StromeC0004000018:593:17
B. JennerC000220-2017:510:09
T. WilsonRW000321-1017:402:26
A. OvechkinLW000220-1016:214:29
I. ProtasLW000010-1013:282:07
A. ProtasLW000120-2013:090:04
I. MiroshnichenkoLW000000-1010:340:43
J. ChychrunD0115110026:383:32
C. HutsonD101300-2021:441:55
M. FehérváryD000022-2019:390:10
M. RoyD0002200017:300:00
V. DesharnaisD000120-1415:330:07
T. LiljegrenD0000120012:440:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson25214.84058:02Loss
C. Lindgren000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

LAK

Line 1A. Kempe13:33A. Laferriere15:27A. Panarin13:24
Line 2M. Zuccarello13:06T. Moore14:46E. Haula11:50
Line 3J. Armia10:41S. Laughton12:44A. Lee11:19
Line 4C. Perry11:44S. Helenius10:27
Pair 1M. Anderson18:46B. Dumoulin17:29
Pair 2D. Doughty16:33J. Edmundson15:29
Pair 3B. Clarke14:31E. Gustafsson12:32

WSH

Line 1D. Strome12:55A. Tuch12:43J. Kyrou12:17
Line 2B. Jenner13:15A. Protas11:28T. Wilson11:46
Line 3A. Beauvillier12:52J. Brodzinski10:12R. Leonard12:41
Line 4A. Ovechkin10:33I. Protas11:10I. Miroshnichenko9:40
Pair 1M. Roy14:56J. Chychrun19:03
Pair 2V. Desharnais14:34M. Fehérváry17:07
Pair 3T. Liljegren11:28C. Hutson18:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 18 overs hit (61%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
LAK A. Kempe2.5-130+1106Over
LAK A. Laferriere2.5+102-1203Over
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5-105-1102Under
LAK A. Panarin2.5+100-1053Over
WSH A. Tuch2.5+120-1442Under
WSH J. Chychrun2.5-105-1155Over
LAK Q. Byfield2.5+140-1550Under
WSH A. Protas1.5-105-1251Under
LAK B. Clarke1.5-148+1151Under
WSH B. Jenner1.5-135+1252Over
WSH C. Hutson1.5-115+1003Over
LAK D. Doughty1.5+120-1551Under
WSH D. Strome1.5-125+1104Over
WSH J. Kyrou1.5-160+1352Over
LAK M. Zuccarello1.5-135+1053Over
WSH R. Leonard1.5-160+1252Over
LAK T. Moore1.5-175+1540Under
WSH T. Wilson1.5-155+1303Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreLAK 2.8, WSH 3.1LAK 5, WSH 2
Total goals5.97
Shots on goalLAK 27.6, WSH 26.7LAK 26, WSH 32
Win chanceWSH 56%LAK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
LAK A. Panarin2.931.15335%1
LAK A. Kempe2.960.93234%2
LAK A. Laferriere2.830.65224%0
WSH A. Tuch2.620.86032%0
LAK T. Moore2.500.53021%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.450.63119%0
LAK Q. Byfield2.300.66024%0
WSH J. Kyrou2.320.70127%0
WSH A. Ovechkin2.320.69028%0
WSH B. Jenner2.120.55023%0
LAK M. Zuccarello1.930.77021%0
WSH R. Leonard1.920.54118%1
WSH T. Wilson1.930.74028%0
LAK B. Clarke1.810.47010%0
WSH D. Strome1.740.80024%0
WSH A. Protas1.710.61021%0
WSH C. Hutson1.730.4217%1
LAK S. Laughton1.630.32114%1
LAK E. Haula1.610.38115%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.410.30113%0
LAK J. Armia1.320.30114%0
WSH J. Brodzinski1.320.30112%0
WSH I. Protas1.200.48013%0
LAK C. Perry1.200.31015%0
LAK E. Gustafsson1.220.3216%1
LAK J. Edmundson1.100.1704%0
LAK D. Doughty1.110.3409%0
WSH M. Roy1.020.2605%0
WSH I. Miroshnichenko1.000.2209%0
LAK A. Lee1.010.1808%0
WSH T. Liljegren0.900.2305%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.900.3508%0
LAK S. Helenius0.700.1306%0
WSH V. Desharnais0.710.1903%0
LAK M. Anderson0.700.1904%0
LAK B. Dumoulin0.600.1604%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.