Game Recap: MIN 5, ANA 1, December 6, 2024

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Game Recap

MIN5

FinalFri, Dec 6, 2024Every game that night

ANA1

MIN beat ANA 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.52 expected goals to 2.40. M. Rossi led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Foligno had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. F. Gustavsson stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	3	2	5
ANA	0	0	1	1

2nd 4:22MINM. RossiPP0.13 xG
2nd 8:03MINM. Rossi0.23 xG
2nd 10:51MINM. Boldy0.12 xG
3rd 1:21MINK. Kaprizov0.23 xG
3rd 16:37ANAB. McGinn0.06 xG
3rd 18:43MINY. TreninEN0.63 xG

Team Stats

MINANA

33Shots on goal27

3.52Expected goals2.40

62Shot attempts65

285v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play0/2

15Hits21

21Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes8

7Giveaways11

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.52 xGANA 2.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN32 on goal, 5 scored

ANA26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	2	3	5	0	0	+2	0	20:49	3:12
M. Boldy	LW	1	2	3	4	0	0	+2	0	17:46	3:13
M. Rossi	C	2	1	3	3	0	0	+3	0	17:17	3:15
M. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	4	2	1	+1	0	17:19	3:19
Y. Trenin	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	16:55	1:05
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:48	1:06
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	15:20	0:59
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:13	1:03
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	2	12:49	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:56	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	10:39	0:00
R. Johnson	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	10:23	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	1	1	4	+1	0	23:17	3:21
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+3	2	22:16	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+3	0	23:10	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:47	0:57
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:31	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Leason	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	0	15:34	0:45
B. McGinn	LW	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	12:48	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	19:01	3:14
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	19:00	3:08
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	3	3	1	-2	6	17:54	3:14
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	17:49	3:14
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:54	2:44
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	15:05	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:06	0:45
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	0	11:54	0:46
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	11:47	0:01
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:41	0:01
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	18:51	0:06
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	20:31	1:10
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:29	0:01
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	19:39	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	18:20	0:01
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:18	2:49

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	32	28	4	.875	58:01	Loss
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.3, ANA 2.6	MIN 5, ANA 1
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	MIN 31.7, ANA 27.7	MIN 33, ANA 27
Win chance	MIN 61%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.7	5	1.43	3	47%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	4	0.98	3	33%	1
ANA F. Vatrano	3.3	3	0.65	0	30%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.4	4	0.79	0	28%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	1	0.59	0	24%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.9	3	0.58	3	22%	2
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	3	0.56	0	23%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.8	3	0.38	0	8%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	0	0.42	0	13%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.8	0	0.53	0	18%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.7	1	0.47	1	12%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.7	1	0.48	0	18%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.7	1	0.53	0	20%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	3	0.57	1	10%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.6	0	0.43	0	17%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.6	0	0.40	0	10%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.5	3	0.37	1	16%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.5	0	0.19	0	11%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.3	2	0.34	0	8%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.3	1	0.24	1	15%	1
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	1	0.23	0	4%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.1	1	0.34	0	7%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.1	2	0.18	0	5%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.1	1	0.26	0	4%	0
ANA C. Fowler	1.1	1	0.40	1	6%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	1.0	2	0.28	0	14%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.0	2	0.27	0	6%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	4	0.38	1	16%	0
MIN R. Johnson	1.0	1	0.13	0	6%	0
ANA B. McGinn	1.0	2	0.22	1	12%	1
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	0	0.16	0	8%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.7	3	0.12	0	8%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.7	0	0.18	0	6%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.14	0	5%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	1	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.