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Game Recap
MIN5
FinalFri, Jan 2, 2026Every game that night
ANA2

MIN beat ANA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.94 expected goals to 2.34. Q. Hughes led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). J. Trouba had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. F. Gustavsson stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
MIN1225
ANA0112
  1. 1st 5:39MINK. KaprizovPP0.37 xG
  2. 2nd 8:10MIND. Yurov0.11 xG
  3. 2nd 13:46ANAB. Sennecke0.09 xG
  4. 2nd 14:45MINY. Trenin0.08 xG
  5. 3rd 3:21MIND. Yurov0.09 xG
  6. 3rd 15:02MINN. Sturm0.03 xG
  7. 3rd 17:27ANAT. Terry0.08 xG

Team Stats

MINANA
34Shots on goal28
3.94Expected goals2.34
82Shot attempts66
235v5 shots on goal21
1/4Power play0/1
11Hits22
18Blocked shots20
2Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways22
2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 3.94 xGANA 2.34 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdMIN goal, 5:39MIN goal, 8:10ANA goal, 13:46MIN goal, 14:45MIN goal, 3:21MIN goal, 15:02ANA goal, 17:27

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN33 on goal, 5 scored
ANA27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. Eriksson EkC022211+1018:423:15
D. YurovRW2022000014:210:00
Y. TreninC112250+3012:140:06
K. KaprizovLW1016010020:564:39
M. ZuccarelloRW011000-1018:354:39
N. SturmC101111+1011:090:00
M. FolignoLW011111+1010:250:00
M. BoldyLW0002000020:304:39
M. JohanssonLW000200+1015:561:25
R. HartmanRW0001020015:532:55
V. TarasenkoRW0003000013:091:31
V. HinostrozaC0001120210:430:00
Q. HughesD044211+2023:164:39
J. BrodinD011302+1020:140:00
B. FaberD000504+1021:511:31
J. SpurgeonD000103+1018:351:31
J. MiddletonD000010-1016:480:00
Z. BogosianD0000000014:430:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
F. Gustavsson28262.92960:00Win
J. Wallstedt000–0:00

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. GranlundC011000+1019:051:19
B. SenneckeRW101620-1418:261:19
T. TerryRW101301-1016:550:41
M. McTavishC011310-2016:071:19
R. PoehlingC0001030017:040:00
L. CarlssonC000021-1015:081:19
N. NesterenkoC0000300014:470:00
C. KreiderLW0001200014:200:41
C. GauthierLW000201-2013:490:41
J. HarkinsC0000410011:440:00
R. JohnstonLW0000200010:230:00
A. KillornLW000010028:510:00
J. LaCombeD000210-1023:411:19
J. TroubaD000621-1023:040:41
P. MintyukovD000112-1020:520:41
I. MooreD000204-1219:440:00
R. GudasD0001160015:470:00
O. ZellwegerD0000000014:430:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal34295.85359:20Loss
P. Mrazek000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello13:16K. Kaprizov15:37D. Yurov13:46
Line 2M. Johansson14:31M. Boldy14:41J. Ek14:17
Line 3V. Tarasenko11:38R. Hartman12:58V. Hinostroza10:43
Line 4M. Foligno9:35Y. Trenin12:08N. Sturm10:15
Pair 1Q. Hughes18:37B. Faber18:49
Pair 2J. Spurgeon15:53J. Brodin19:24
Pair 3Z. Bogosian14:43J. Middleton14:59

ANA

Line 1M. McTavish14:08B. Sennecke16:27C. Kreider11:04
Line 2R. Poehling13:42J. Harkins11:44R. Johnston10:23
Line 3N. Nesterenko14:37T. Terry15:21M. Granlund14:31
Line 4C. Gauthier12:28L. Carlsson12:56A. Killorn5:39
Pair 1P. Mintyukov18:29I. Moore19:44
Pair 2J. Trouba17:52J. LaCombe17:54
Pair 3R. Gudas14:08O. Zellweger14:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreMIN 3.0, ANA 3.0MIN 5, ANA 2
Total goals6.17
Shots on goalMIN 27.4, ANA 31.4MIN 34, ANA 28
Win chanceANA 50%MIN won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MIN K. Kaprizov3.461.26145%1
ANA C. Gauthier3.320.71027%0
MIN M. Boldy3.121.01034%0
MIN J. Ek2.920.75227%0
MIN Q. Hughes2.721.13415%0
ANA M. McTavish2.330.63123%0
ANA T. Terry2.330.71124%1
ANA L. Carlsson2.200.75025%0
ANA C. Kreider2.210.60032%0
ANA J. LaCombe2.220.57013%0
MIN R. Hartman2.110.51022%0
MIN M. Zuccarello2.000.83122%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.060.68122%1
ANA M. Granlund2.000.70119%0
ANA J. Trouba2.060.3308%0
MIN B. Faber1.850.45011%0
MIN V. Tarasenko1.730.56022%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.600.2607%0
MIN M. Johansson1.520.55017%0
ANA A. Killorn1.500.35016%0
MIN J. Spurgeon1.410.4109%0
ANA I. Moore1.320.2506%0
MIN D. Yurov1.320.44214%2
ANA P. Mintyukov1.310.3308%0
ANA N. Nesterenko1.300.29012%0
ANA R. Gudas1.310.2204%0
MIN Y. Trenin1.220.27212%1
MIN J. Brodin1.230.3617%0
ANA R. Poehling1.110.37013%0
MIN M. Foligno1.110.31114%0
MIN V. Hinostroza1.110.26011%0
MIN N. Sturm1.010.24111%1
MIN Z. Bogosian1.000.2104%0
MIN J. Middleton0.900.2505%0
ANA J. Harkins0.700.1106%0
ANA R. Johnston0.600.1805%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.