Game Recap: MIN 5, BUF 4 (OT), January 17, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN5

Final/OTSat, Jan 17, 2026Every game that night

BUF4

MIN beat BUF 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.64 expected goals to 2.94. MIN outshot BUF 36 to 24. K. Kaprizov led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). V. Tarasenko had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. F. Gustavsson stopped 20 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MIN	2	2	0	1	5
BUF	1	3	0	0	4

1st 9:19MINM. Foligno0.21 xG
1st 10:05BUFR. McLeod0.15 xG
1st 19:52MINR. Hartman0.47 xG
2nd 1:08MINV. Tarasenko0.09 xG
2nd 10:07BUFP. Krebs0.08 xG
2nd 11:34BUFJ. Quinn0.32 xG
2nd 16:07BUFA. TuchPP0.04 xG
2nd 17:04MINQ. Hughes0.08 xG
OT 1:46MINM. ZuccarelloPP0.18 xG

Team Stats

MINBUF

36Shots on goal24

4.64Expected goals2.94

67Shot attempts48

285v5 shots on goal17

1/4Power play1/4

31Hits21

9Blocked shots16

15Penalty minutes15

11Giveaways10

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 4.64 xGBUF 2.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN34 on goal, 5 scored

BUF24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	3	3	3	1	0	+1	0	24:28	6:45
M. Zuccarello	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	0	25:35	7:19
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	1	2	5	3	0	+2	0	15:55	3:35
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	22:10	5:46
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	4	16:27	1:13
M. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	7	14:25	2:39
B. Jones	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	8:54	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	9	0	+1	0	15:33	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	12:28	2:14
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:55	0:00
H. Haight	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:06	0:02
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	6:08	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	2	29:52	6:34
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	16:16	0:41
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	28:41	1:24
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	3	3	4	0	0	21:17	0:02
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:36	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	9:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	24	20	4	.833	61:46	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Zucker	LW	0	2	2	3	2	0	+1	0	17:49	5:07
R. McLeod	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	16:30	0:44
J. Quinn	RW	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	16:03	1:41
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	6	0	0	-1	2	22:17	5:37
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	0	18:40	0:30
P. Krebs	C	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	2	10:31	0:00
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:31	1:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:09	5:25
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:14	4:23
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	10:43	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	9:56	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	8:32	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	27:10	5:40
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	-1	0	26:30	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	2	25:36	0:28
O. Power	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	21:33	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	9	10:16	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	7:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	36	31	5	.861	61:46	OT loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello17:26K. Kaprizov16:50R. Hartman15:41

Line 2Y. Trenin13:37D. Yurov14:04V. Tarasenko11:23

Line 3M. Foligno9:19V. Hinostroza10:14H. Haight8:04

Line 4T. Pitlick6:08N. Sturm6:48B. Jones7:09

Pair 1B. Faber21:35Q. Hughes21:28

Pair 2J. Spurgeon13:54J. Middleton15:13

Pair 3D. Hunt10:10D.Jiricek9:12

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch15:09T. Thompson15:32Z. Benson14:38

Line 2J. Zucker12:42J. Quinn14:00R. McLeod12:34

Line 3J. Doan9:53N. Ostlund10:21P. Krebs10:31

Line 4B. Malenstyn6:49T. Kozak7:40J. Greenway6:22

Pair 1B. Byram19:38O. Power18:05

Pair 2M. Samuelsson19:16R. Dahlin18:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownMarcus Foligno MIN Plays in his hometown1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.2, BUF 3.2	MIN 5, BUF 4
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	MIN 28.3, BUF 29.4	MIN 36, BUF 24
Win chance	BUF 51%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	3	1.20	3	44%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	6	1.02	1	41%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	3.0	2	0.80	1	17%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.7	4	1.05	2	14%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	2	0.79	1	29%	1
BUF J. Doan	2.3	1	0.69	0	24%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.2	4	0.55	1	24%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	3	0.66	2	24%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	4	0.80	2	22%	1
MIN B. Faber	1.8	2	0.44	0	11%	0
BUF O. Power	1.8	0	0.41	0	7%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	1	0.46	0	14%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.8	4	0.50	2	18%	1
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.6	5	0.47	2	19%	1
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.6	0	0.35	1	8%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.5	0	0.22	0	5%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.5	1	0.52	0	14%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.4	1	0.47	1	18%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	2	0.60	2	20%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	2	0.33	1	8%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.2	2	0.31	1	15%	1
BUF N. Ostlund	1.1	0	0.37	0	15%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	0	0.24	0	11%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.31	1	10%	1
MIN N. Sturm	1.1	1	0.25	0	11%	0
MIN B. Jones	1.0	0	0.06	1	6%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.9	0	0.20	0	8%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	0.9	3	0.20	0	9%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.9	2	0.14	0	7%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	0	0.14	0	6%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.8	3	0.22	0	5%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	1	0.17	0	10%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.6	0	0.14	0	3%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	0	0.12	0	4%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	0	0.16	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.