Game Recap: MIN 2, BUF 3 (OT), October 6, 2026

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Game Recap

MIN2

Final/OTTue, Oct 6, 2026Every game that night

BUF3

BUF beat MIN 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.77 expected goals to 1.90. BUF outshot MIN 28 to 20. T. Thompson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Thompson had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. C. Ellis stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MIN	0	2	0	0	2
BUF	0	0	2	1	3

2nd 13:53MIND. YurovPP0.06 xG
2nd 15:38MINM. Shabanov0.13 xG
3rd 3:55BUFN. Ostlund0.19 xG
3rd 9:38BUFT. Thompson0.17 xG
OT 4:22BUFO. Power0.12 xG

Team Stats

MINBUF

20Shots on goal28

1.90Expected goals3.77

48Shot attempts63

165v5 shots on goal19

1/4Power play0/2

26Hits12

17Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes8

20Giveaways16

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 1.90 xGBUF 3.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN20 on goal, 2 scored

BUF27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	-2	0	17:44	1:51
M. Shabanov	RW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	0	17:30	3:44
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	15:16	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	14:21	1:49
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	24:58	4:45
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	7	0	3	-2	0	23:24	4:45
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	20:26	4:45
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:40	1:51
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	13:34	2:50
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	7	0	+1	0	13:25	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	13:04	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:29	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	29:30	4:45
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	21:49	1:44
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	2	19:18	0:02
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	19:18	0:09
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	14:12	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	28	25	3	.893	64:22	OT loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	9	0	1	+1	0	20:23	2:30
N. Ostlund	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:39	2:30
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	15:21	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+2	0	13:56	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	21:45	2:39
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	20:41	2:44
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:44	1:16
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	14:15	1:30
K. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:01	1:30
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:05	0:40
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:28	0:00
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:17	0:00
O. Power	D	1	1	2	2	0	0	+3	0	29:04	1:28
R. Dahlin	D	0	1	1	3	1	4	+1	2	29:15	2:32
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	22:41	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:52	0:41
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	-1	0	14:19	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ellis	20	18	2	.900	64:22	Win
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Foligno12:40M. McCarron13:30Y. Trenin12:08

Line 2D. Yurov11:36M. Shabanov12:48K. Kaprizov18:27

Line 3J. Ek12:22M. Boldy15:02B. Coleman13:11

Line 4R. Hartman11:49B. Brink10:44

Pair 1Q. Hughes21:44J. Spurgeon16:24

Pair 2J. Brodin17:24O. Maatta17:49

Pair 3Z. Bogosian12:27D. Hunt13:26

BUF

Line 1N. Ostlund15:51J. Quinn15:21Z. Benson14:58

Line 2P. Krebs15:21J.Kulich12:27K. Helenius11:31

Line 3T. Thompson16:44J. Doan11:25J. Norris12:08

Line 4B. Malenstyn6:23J. Danforth6:34R. McLeod9:35

Pair 1M. Samuelsson19:19R. Dahlin24:22

Pair 2O. Power22:23O. Zellweger14:11

Pair 3L. Crevier11:18Z. Metsa7:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+110	-140	3	Under
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	+120	-155	7	Over
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	+125	-135	9	Over
MIN B. Coleman	2.5	+140	-165	1	Under
MIN J. Ek	2.5	-104	-115	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	2.5	+100	-125	2	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	+100	-125	1	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	-110	-110	3	Over
MIN B. Brink	1.5	+100	-135	2	Over
BUF J. Doan	1.5	-160	+130	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	1.5	+100	-108	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	1.5	+100	-130	2	Over
BUF O. Power	1.5	+120	-160	2	Over
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	-125	+110	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	1.5	+115	-150	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	-155	+122	2	Over
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	-180	+135	1	Over

5 of 36 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+320	-440	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+1300	-1400	0	Under
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	+2200	-5000	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+475	-800	1	Over
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
BUF J. Danforth	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+265	-380	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+235	-300	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+320	-440	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+240	-350	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
BUF J.Kulich	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
BUF K. Helenius	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
MIN M. Foligno	0.5	+725	-1600	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+400	-550	1	Over
MIN N. Foligno	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+370	-600	1	Over
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+800	-2000	1	Over
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+350	-600	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+475	-900	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+165	-210	1	Over
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+1800	-10000	0	Under
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under

7 of 26 overs hit (27%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+215	-295	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+275	-350	1	Over
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+215	-280	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+210	-220	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+210	-295	1	Over
BUF K. Helenius	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+100	-125	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+235	-320	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+220	-260	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+265	-370	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+145	-195	1	Over
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+330	-475	1	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-160	+135	1	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-125	+110	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+225	-250	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+105	-125	1	Over
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+155	-200	0	Under

10 of 26 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	1.5	+185	-250	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+135	-185	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+130	-150	1	Over
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+185	-250	1	Over
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+330	-500	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-120	+105	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+115	-145	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	-105	+100	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+165	-225	1	Over
BUF K. Helenius	0.5	+155	-215	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-215	+190	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+120	-150	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+130	-155	1	Over
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+230	-330	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+115	-155	2	Over
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+210	-290	1	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-210	+180	1	Over
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-220	+165	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+145	-175	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+145	-160	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	-220	+175	2	Over
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	-120	-105	0	Under

2 of 19 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+220	-375	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+380	-900	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+235	-400	0	Under
MIN J. Spurgeon	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
BUF K. Helenius	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+130	-185	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+125	-180	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+220	-375	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+125	-180	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+160	-240	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+210	-350	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
BUF C. Ellis	24.5	-118	-105	18	Under
MIN J. Wallstedt	24.5	-110	-118	25	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
BUF M. Samuelsson	2.5	+135	-195	1	Under
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	-135	-105	3	Over
MIN O. Maatta	1.5	-105	-135	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownMarcus Foligno MIN Plays in his hometown1 SOG
HometownNick Foligno MIN Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.1, BUF 3.5	MIN 2, BUF 3
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	MIN 27.6, BUF 31.0	MIN 20, BUF 28
Win chance	BUF 56%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	9	0.96	2	37%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.3	7	0.94	0	34%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.0	3	1.08	0	41%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.9	0	0.70	0	26%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.8	3	0.92	1	21%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.6	2	0.66	0	22%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.3	0	0.63	0	23%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.2	1	0.46	1	21%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.2	1	0.97	1	13%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.2	0	0.53	0	22%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.1	2	0.64	0	19%	0
BUF K. Helenius	2.0	0	0.43	0	17%	0
BUF J.Kulich	1.8	2	0.37	1	18%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	0	0.61	0	26%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.47	2	9%	1
MIN M. McCarron	1.5	0	0.26	1	12%	0
BUF L. Crevier	1.4	2	0.29	0	8%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	2	0.43	0	11%	0
BUF O. Zellweger	1.3	0	0.24	0	7%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.2	2	0.40	0	15%	0
BUF J. Danforth	1.2	0	0.29	0	12%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	2	0.44	1	15%	1
MIN M. Shabanov	1.1	2	0.36	1	11%	1
BUF R. McLeod	1.1	1	0.53	0	16%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	0	0.30	1	8%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	1	0.25	0	5%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.40	1	11%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	2	0.32	1	13%	1
MIN O. Maatta	1.0	0	0.32	0	5%	0
MIN N. Foligno	1.0	0	0.30	0	12%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	1	0.25	0	13%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.7	0	0.15	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.6	0	0.13	0	3%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	0	0.15	0	2%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	0	0.19	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.