Game Recap: MIN 3, CAR 4, November 6, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN3

FinalThu, Nov 6, 2025Every game that night

CAR4

CAR beat MIN 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.93 expected goals to 2.12. M. Boldy led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Svechnikov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. F. Andersen stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	2	1	0	3
CAR	3	1	0	4

1st 5:34MINM. Boldy0.21 xG
1st 12:53CARJ. Blake0.21 xG
1st 13:24MINB. Faber0.11 xG
1st 13:45CARA. Svechnikov0.03 xG
1st 16:51CARS. Walker0.03 xG
2nd 0:37MINM. BoldyPP0.06 xG
2nd 0:46CARN. Ehlers0.05 xG

Team Stats

MINCAR

24Shots on goal27

2.12Expected goals4.93

46Shot attempts77

205v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play0/2

35Hits19

17Blocked shots11

22Penalty minutes23

16Giveaways12

3Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 2.12 xGCAR 4.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN23 on goal, 3 scored

CAR27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	2	0	2	3	1	2	-1	0	19:37	2:36
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	22:23	2:37
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:52	2:15
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	15:38	2:30
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:46	2:09
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	17:35	2:36
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	2	7	1	-1	0	15:56	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:32	2:15
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:10	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	11:22	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	7:51	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20	1:31	0:00
B. Faber	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	-1	0	26:17	2:19
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	1	4	4	-2	0	22:52	2:19
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	22:14	0:13
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	2	18:30	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	18:07	2:26
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	27	23	4	.852	58:12	Loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	13:52	1:57
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	23:58	3:01
S. Jarvis	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	19:33	2:57
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+2	0	18:32	3:02
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	13:52	2:35
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	4	3	-1	0	15:45	0:01
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:46	1:58
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	4	13:26	1:57
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	12:18	0:01
B. Nadeau	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:45	1:56
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:44	0:05
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	17	10:00	0:03
S. Walker	D	1	1	2	1	2	1	+2	0	24:49	2:44
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	24:42	2:05
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	23:13	0:27
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	20:53	0:00
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:12	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	3:49	0:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	24	21	3	.875	60:00	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Johansson12:03M. Rossi13:56K. Kaprizov18:17

Line 2M. Boldy14:02J. Ek12:15V. Tarasenko11:27

Line 3V. Hinostroza12:10R. Hartman11:57M. Foligno14:29

Line 4Y. Trenin9:19B. Jones7:42

Pair 1J. Brodin17:51B. Faber18:20

Pair 2J. Spurgeon17:23J. Middleton16:24

Pair 3Z. Buium13:52D. Hunt8:54

CAR

Line 1S. Aho16:07S. Jarvis13:14A. Svechnikov13:54

Line 2T. Hall11:03J. Martinook11:59J. Staal8:30

Line 3L. Stankoven10:58J. Blake10:57N. Ehlers11:16

Line 4J. Kotkaniemi10:39B. Nadeau9:42M. Jankowski10:32

Pair 1M. Reilly17:23J. Nystrom18:12

Pair 2S. Walker18:18A. Nikishin16:58

Pair 3K. Miller19:18J. Chatfield2:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.6, CAR 3.3	MIN 3, CAR 4
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	MIN 24.9, CAR 33.1	MIN 24, CAR 27
Win chance	CAR 62%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	2	1.16	1	42%	0
MIN M. Boldy	2.9	3	0.82	2	28%	2
CAR N. Ehlers	2.8	4	0.81	1	28%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.8	3	0.62	0	24%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.8	2	0.86	1	31%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.7	1	0.39	2	11%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.5	2	0.95	1	33%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	3	0.48	0	20%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.2	5	0.67	1	25%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	2.2	2	0.52	0	20%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	1	0.51	2	20%	1
CAR M. Reilly	2.1	1	0.32	0	6%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.8	2	0.48	1	9%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.8	2	0.52	1	11%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.8	1	0.53	0	20%	0
CAR B. Nadeau	1.7	0	0.35	0	15%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.7	1	0.30	0	9%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	2	0.53	1	20%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.6	0	0.51	0	19%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	2	0.41	1	14%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	1	0.46	0	16%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	0	0.42	0	16%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.4	1	0.16	0	4%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.3	1	0.28	1	6%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	1	0.38	1	9%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.3	0	0.28	0	12%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.2	1	0.31	0	12%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.18	0	10%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	2	0.29	0	14%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.0	1	0.27	0	6%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	0	0.27	0	13%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	1	0.19	0	5%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	0	0.05	0	4%	0
MIN Z. Buium	0.8	2	0.25	0	4%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.7	0	0.13	0	6%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.