Game Recap: MIN 5, CBJ 2, December 18, 2025

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Game Recap

MIN5

FinalThu, Dec 18, 2025Every game that night

CBJ2

MIN beat CBJ 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.35 expected goals to 2.43. M. Boldy led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). Z. Werenski had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.8. J. Wallstedt stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	0	2	3	5
CBJ	1	1	0	2

1st 15:20CBJZ. Werenski0.23 xG
2nd 13:30MINR. HartmanPP0.17 xG
2nd 16:15MINV. Tarasenko0.15 xG
2nd 17:39CBJZ. Werenski0.06 xG
3rd 11:50MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.64 xG
3rd 18:08MINK. KaprizovEN0.50 xG
3rd 18:46MINM. BoldyEN0.84 xG

Team Stats

MINCBJ

28Shots on goal29

4.35Expected goals2.43

59Shot attempts64

245v5 shots on goal24

1/1Power play0/2

15Hits26

18Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes2

19Giveaways14

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 4.35 xGCBJ 2.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN28 on goal, 5 scored

CBJ29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	2	3	2	0	0	+1	0	23:44	1:37
M. Boldy	LW	1	2	3	3	0	2	+2	0	21:25	1:37
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	18:37	1:19
Y. Trenin	C	0	2	2	1	6	0	+2	0	17:32	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	16:12	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	15:33	1:13
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	14:44	0:18
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	14:32	0:00
N. Aube-Kubel	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	10:39	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:02	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	8:10	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	7:02	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	30:57	0:24
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	32:02	1:14
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	18:56	0:23
M. Kiersted	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	17:37	0:00
C. Lambos	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	10:16	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	9:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	-1	0	18:28	0:42
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	17:14	0:00
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	4	3	2	+1	0	19:38	0:44
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	18:00	1:13
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:30	0:46
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	16:05	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:58	1:11
K. Marchenko	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	15:50	1:15
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:25	1:11
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	9:40	0:59
Z. Aston-Reese	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	2	8:50	0:59
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:44	0:59
Z. Werenski	D	2	0	2	8	0	2	0	0	28:30	2:11
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	24:20	0:59
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	23:13	0:46
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:16	0:45
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:57	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	26	23	3	.885	59:21	Loss
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

MIN

Line 1M. Boldy17:54J. Ek16:06K. Kaprizov21:35

Line 2D. Yurov15:49V. Tarasenko14:10Y. Trenin16:17

Line 3M. Foligno13:45R. Hartman14:24N. Aube-Kubel10:37

Line 4T. Pitlick8:10N. Sturm8:24B. Jones7:02

Pair 1Q. Hughes30:27B. Faber28:37

Pair 2J. Spurgeon16:31M. Kiersted16:03

Pair 3C. Lambos9:00D.Jiricek8:59

CBJ

Line 1C. Coyle16:51C. Sillinger16:52M. Wood15:14

Line 2B. Jenner17:55S. Monahan15:02E. Chinakhov14:37

Line 3K. Marchenko14:06A. Fantilli16:08D. Voronkov13:45

Line 4Z. Aston-Reese7:49I. Lundestrom8:15K. Johnson7:45

Pair 1Z. Werenski24:50D. Mateychuk22:11

Pair 2D. Severson16:31I. Provorov21:01

Pair 3B. Smith10:24D. Fabbro14:34

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 3.0, CBJ 3.0	MIN 5, CBJ 2
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	MIN 29.1, CBJ 31.2	MIN 28, CBJ 29
Win chance	MIN 51%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.8	8	0.92	2	19%	2
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	2	1.21	3	44%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.3	3	0.99	3	34%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.0	2	0.72	2	26%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	3.0	3	0.73	0	31%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.9	1	1.11	0	17%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.9	3	0.73	0	29%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.2	3	0.50	1	21%	1
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.2	1	0.59	0	26%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.1	4	0.47	0	22%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	2.1	3	0.62	1	23%	1
MIN B. Faber	2.0	4	0.46	1	13%	0
CBJ M. Wood	2.0	3	0.34	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.0	1	0.38	1	14%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.0	0	0.61	0	20%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.9	0	0.39	0	8%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.5	1	0.49	1	17%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	0	0.49	1	18%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.5	1	0.28	2	14%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.5	0	0.29	0	13%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.5	1	0.38	0	10%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.4	0	0.40	0	15%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.3	1	0.34	0	8%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.3	2	0.33	0	10%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.2	0	0.33	0	15%	0
MIN N. Sturm	1.2	1	0.25	0	11%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	1	0.20	0	5%	0
MIN N. Aube-Kubel	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
MIN B. Jones	1.0	2	0.05	0	5%	0
MIN M. Kiersted	0.9	0	0.25	0	5%	0
CBJ Z. Aston-Reese	0.9	0	0.15	0	7%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.9	2	0.15	0	7%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.9	2	0.19	0	8%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
CBJ B. Smith	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.