Game Recap: MIN 3, DAL 2 (OT), December 27, 2024

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Game Recap

MIN3

Final/OTFri, Dec 27, 2024Every game that night

DAL2

MIN beat DAL 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.43 expected goals to 2.68. DAL outshot MIN 29 to 18. E. Dadonov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Gustavsson stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MIN	0	0	2	1	3
DAL	1	1	0	0	2

1st 9:52DALE. Dadonov0.13 xG
2nd 15:08DALW. Johnston0.08 xG
3rd 10:36MINJ. Brodin0.12 xG
3rd 11:33MINM. Foligno0.08 xG
OT 0:35MINB. Faber0.08 xG

Team Stats

MINDAL

18Shots on goal29

1.43Expected goals2.68

46Shot attempts66

175v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play0/3

28Hits18

19Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes2

11Giveaways13

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

MIN 1.43 xGDAL 2.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

MIN18 on goal, 3 scored

DAL29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	2	19:47	1:35
M. Rossi	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	18:38	1:14
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:23	1:32
M. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	2	5	1	+1	0	14:12	1:14
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	17:10	0:46
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	+1	0	15:03	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-2	0	14:41	0:46
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	13:46	0:25
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	13:43	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	11:16	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:08	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	9:06	0:00
B. Faber	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	2	25:28	1:17
J. Brodin	D	1	0	1	2	1	3	0	0	24:11	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	0	0	21:52	0:43
D. Chisholm	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:14	0:28
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	16:21	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	29	27	2	.931	60:35	Win
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	18:58	3:14
E. Dadonov	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	17:36	2:34
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	16:55	3:12
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	18:50	3:12
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	17:54	2:47
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:05	0:08
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:54	3:43
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	2	16:51	2:18
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:09	0:06
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:36	1:42
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	11:39	0:00
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4:58	0:27
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	1	6	2	0	0	15:05	0:03
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	27:46	3:55
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	22:11	0:00
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	21:23	2:19
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	15:52	0:08
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	13:03	0:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	18	15	3	.833	60:35	OT loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSam Steel DAL Faces MIN, his team until Apr 20230 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	MIN 2.8, DAL 3.4	MIN 3, DAL 2
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	MIN 26.4, DAL 31.7	MIN 18, DAL 29
Win chance	DAL 61%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL W. Johnston	2.7	2	0.75	2	30%	1
MIN M. Boldy	2.7	1	0.74	1	27%	0
DAL J. Robertson	2.3	2	0.87	0	30%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.3	0	0.69	0	11%	0
DAL L. Stankoven	2.2	4	0.52	0	17%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	4	0.78	0	33%	0
DAL M. Marchment	1.9	2	0.62	0	23%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	1.9	1	0.73	1	20%	0
DAL T. Harley	1.9	3	0.49	0	10%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.8	0	0.75	1	23%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.8	0	0.57	1	23%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.8	3	0.41	0	18%	0
DAL M. Duchene	1.8	1	0.77	0	28%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.6	2	0.35	1	9%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	2	0.29	1	6%	1
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	0	0.38	0	15%	0
DAL E. Dadonov	1.4	3	0.42	2	17%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.4	1	0.30	0	6%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	3	0.25	0	4%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.3	1	0.42	1	8%	1
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.3	1	0.33	0	14%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.3	1	0.26	0	12%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	0	0.40	0	13%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.0	2	0.22	1	5%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	2	0.35	1	15%	1
MIN B. Gaunce	1.0	1	0.18	0	10%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.0	1	0.27	0	10%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	0	0.20	0	12%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	1	0.13	0	3%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	0	0.08	0	7%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.24	0	7%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	1	0.34	0	9%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.6	1	0.15	0	5%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	0	0.13	0	3%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	1	0.18	1	2%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.4	0	0.17	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.